2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

1. Arian Foster – It is risky to count on a guy who only had one season of solid production. But the Texans RBs always put great fantasy numbers even when the team does not generate wins. This zone blocking scheme and high-powered offense will always generate good fantasy production. I think the Texans defense has really improved. It could not have gotten worse, but the new coaching and player personal all look like good moves, which means there should be more late game carries for Foster. Also, the other Tier 1 RBs, Peterson and Johnson, are both playing with rookie QBs. I would take Foster #1.

2. Adrian Peterson – I don’t like when RBs have to play alongside rookie QBs. But the Vikings got nothing out of Brett Favre last year. And AP put up monster rookie numbers with Tavaris Jackson at QB. He is a great enough RB that he will be beast regardless of the QB situation. The Vikings are fading, but AP isn’t.

3. Chris Johnson – Johnson’s YPC severely decreased last year than from his monster season 2 years ago. But I blame that on the Titans offensive line, which cannot be any worse this season. They did not really address the OL in the draft, but expect them to in Free Agency, especially with a rookie QB.

4. Ray Rice – Rice has always been an elite RB, who did not get off TDs. Willis McGahee is finally out of Baltimore. This means Rice will finally get the bulk of the goaline work, and become a fantasy beast. I would rank him 4 th with the potential for even higher. He plays in a run heavy offense, does not have a rookie QB, and will finally get the bulk of the goaline carries.

5. LeSean McCoy – Andy Reid always heavily favors the pass. But McCoy compensates his lack of carries with a lot of receptions; making him even more valuable in PPR leagues. Vick will probably steal some of rushing opportunities. But McCoy is putting up Westbrook like numbers, without the injuries.

6. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall does not contribute much in the passing game. But he is the lone star RB in a heavy run offense. The Steelers bolstered their O-line this offseason, so expect even more improvement from Mendenhall. He is not a likeable guy, but that does not mean anything about his fantasy football production, only that he might slip in your draft.

7. Jamal Charles – I am a big fan of Jamal Charles. I think he will have a great career, but he should be taken in the top of the first round this year. First of all he will continue to lose a lot of carries to Thomas Jones, in an effort to preserve Charles’s career. Secondly, the Chiefs had one of the easiest schedules last year, but things will get much harder this year, because they won the division. Lastly, Charlie Weis is no longer the OC of the Chiefs. His departure will hurt this entire offense. Charles is a player on the rise and the Chiefs are an organization on the rise. However, I am predicting an off year for both this season.

8. Matt Forte – Forte does not possess some of the upside of the other first round running backs. But he has never missed a game in his career. He catches a lot of passes in Martz’s offensive system, which makes him even more valuable in PPR leagues. Also, the Bears main focus this offseason was upgrading their O-line.

9. Steven Jackson – Jackson has been carrying the load in STL for a while. He has over 1,800 career carries, but has shown no signs of slowing down. I am counting on him for one more solid season of production. Also, with McDaniels joining the staff expect a lot more goaline opportunities for Jackson. In addition, the developing Sam Bradford is a fantasy steal this season.

10. LeGarrete Blount – Blount was a Heisman candidate before his altercation with Boise State; causing him to miss his final collegiate season. Therefore, he slipped in the NFL draft and had to wait to get carries in the NFL. Last year he had over 1,000 rushing yards last year, despite not receiving at least 10 carries in 1 game until week 7. He is an emerging talent on an emerging team. If he could do anything in the passing games then he would be a well-known elite RB.

11. Maurice Jones-Drew – Had knee surgery this past off-season and did not have access to the team facilities to help his recovery. In addition, the Jaguars traded up to draft a Quarterback in the first round, instead of addressing other positional needs. The Jaguars should have won the division last year, but have decided to enter rebuilding mode. If the season starts poorly, MJD will be playing along a rookie Quarterback or be rested during the fantasy playoffs.

12. Frank Gore – In the constantly changing 49er offense Gore has been the only consistent asset. He is a great talent, but always seems to be hurt. His injury history is well known, so if he slips he will be worth the risk. Coach Harbaugh is famous for helping Luck develop last season; and the 49ers are hoping he will pull the same magic. Although when considering Gore, don’t forget 2 years ago Harbaugh gave all those carries to Toby Gerhart.

13. Darren McFadden – McFadden has had some problems staying healthy throughout his NFL career. He has to share carries with Michael Bush. The Raiders have a shady group of Quarterbacks; and their defense has gotten worse, so there will be less late carries for McFadden. Yet, he averaged 5.2 YPC and had over 500 receiving yards last year. He has great skills, but given his terrible situations and history of injuries he is a 2nd round talent.

14. Ryan Mathews – The Chargers didn’t spend the #12 pick on Mathews unless they had the intention of making him the starter. He was banged up last year; and Tolbert will continue to steal his goaline carries. However, his faults last year only allow you to draft him later this year. Rivers threw the ball a career high last year to due to poor defensive play. Expect a more balanced attack this year, meaning more carries for Matthews. In addition, Darren Sproles will likely leave in free agency, so Matthews will also be the 3rd down back. Mathews really came along at the end of last year. In his final 4 games last season he had 350 total yards and 5 TDs. I would expect the same production all through this year; as I expect him to stay healthy.

15. Peyton Hillis – Hillis was great for my fantasy team last season until he wore down. Also, a healthy Montario Hardesty will be taking a lot of Hillis’s touches. In addition, the Browns have to play four games against the Steeler’s and Raven’s stingy defenses, which won’t take Hillis so lightly this season.

16. Michael Turner – Expect the Falcons not to resign their starting RG and RT from last year. Turner led the season in carries again last season, he is definitely worn down. He averaged less than 4 YPC in each of his last 6 games. The Falcons are going to be more dependent on their passing attack this year, and Juilio Jones will be hogging a lot of the TDs.

17. Daniel Thomas – I was waiting until I got to him to stop doing my rankings. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are both free agents that the Dolphins do not plan on resigning. They will probably bring in a free agent running back, but I do not expect it to be an every-down back, such as DeAngelo Williams; rather they will bring in a 3rd down back, like Darren Sproles. They drafted an interior lineman in the 1st round, which shows they will continue to put a heavy emphasis on the run. Thomas is the clear starter on a heavy run team, making him a steal this late in a fantasy draft. I know this is a little high for Thomas; and I might adjust Williams or Stewart ahead of him after we know where Williams signs, which like I said probably won’t be Miami. My point is that Thomas is a solid 2nd RB you can draft as late as the 4th or 5th round.

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By Clark Mann
ProFootball-fans.com Fantasy Football Correspondent