2011 AFC Divisional Round Preview

This years AFC divisional playoff matchups have a little more excitement than usual, pitting two division rivals against each other. Both games, New England Patriots vs. New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, are rubber matches to break the split of these division games with this time a birth into the AFC Conference Championship at stake. The New England Patriots have been viewed by most as the favorite to win not only this game but the Super Bowl for most of the season, but are set to go against Rex Ryan and their hated rival New York Jets. The Pittsburgh Steelers have overcome injuries and a four game suspension of Ben Roethlisberger to win the AFC North division, and are ready to go to war against Ray Lewis and their division foe Baltimore Ravens. Previews and predictions of these AFC Divisional games are broken down as follows:

NYJ vs. NE (-9.5)

Preview: The AFC East was predicted to be a dogfight this year, with the Jets primed to show off their new off-season acquisitions and a much anticipated season after their training camp was shown to the public on HBO’s Hard Knocks. The Jets were set to contend to win the division as they were aiming to dethrone the Patriots from their elite status they have gained over the past decade. The Miami Dolphins were also set to contend with a promising rushing attack to go along with newly acquired wide receiver Brandon Marshall set to give them a deep threat.

This predicted race to win the AFC East was all for naught as New England ran away with the division to a 14-2 record, and looked pretty much unbeatable for the majority of the season. The Jets struggled on offense and were exposed on defense by teams all season, most recently by New England in their last meeting when Tom Brady was as efficient as ever demolishing them to a 45-3 victory.

The game this time should be a little closer as Rex Ryan plans on containing the proclaimed “overrated” Tom Brady. This may be a little tougher than he thinks as the Patriots have averaged 240 yards in the air and over 32 points a game this season with a bevy of wide receivers and running backs for Brady to throw to. The Jets have the tools to contain these weapons with Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis lined up on the outside reared up to slow down this high powered machine.

The Jets should be able to stop the Patriots running game as they have only allowed 90 yards a game on the ground and just under 19 points a game, but if the Jets don’t get any pressure on Brady, the running lanes might seem a little bigger for the likes of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.

Prediction: NYJ 20 NE 31… I think that the third installment of this AFC East matchup will be much closer than the previous game. The Jets are motivated to not get blown out this time around, but Brady has been playing like its 2004 and is out to prove he is the best quarterback in the game once again. New England may not be over to run over the Jets, as I believe that New York will keep it close, but Brady and company will prove to be too much and pull away with a double digit victory at the end of the game.

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Balt vs Pitt (-3)

Preview: The other AFC Divisional round game is also a rubber match, as Baltimore heads back up to Pittsburgh to try and upend the Steelers. Baltimore has shed off the questions of the age of the defense, and have been stout all season only allowing 16 points a game. This may be astonishing, but that is not the best mark amongst the remaining playoff teams, as their counter part in this game, Pittsburgh is only allowing 14.5 points a game. This game will more resemble the old American Gladiators fights, as both defenses are set to rumble.

The Ravens have allowed only 94 yards on the ground this season, as Haoti Ngata as been stuffing anything coming up the middle all year. Rashard Mendenhall may have trouble finding any room against this defense, but Jamaal Charles used his speed and broke away from them en route to a 100 yard performance. Don’t expect this to happen again as Baltimore prides itself on its defense, and Kansas City led the league in rushing in the NFL during the year.

Pittsburgh’s offense may have to rely on the playmaking ability of Big Ben, and his knack for making the big plays when it matters. Hines Ward and the emergence of Mike Wallace have provided Roethlisberger with great plays all season, along with reliable Heath Miller, as the Steelers averaged 225 yards through the this season. This may be irrelevant because Ed Reed has been playing out of his mind since returning from injury, and opportunities down the field will be scarce with Reed playing centerfield.

Pittsburgh also relies heavily on their defense, as they have allowed only 63 yards on the ground this year and Baltimore will have minimal room to run. This places the burden on Joe Flacco, as he his set to play another road playoff game. Pittsburgh’s defense relies heavily on the play of safety Troy Polamalu, as he should be set to go after resting in hopes to be healthy enough to play in this game. His play combined with the outstanding play of James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, should give Flacco fits. Flacco will be counting on Anquan Boldin and Todd Heaps to continue to get open just enough to move down the field.

Prediction: Balt 16 Pitt 20 This game should be a battle, and will probably come down to the wire. This game has been the epitome of an NFL rivalry over the past few seasons, and I expect nothing less than a dog fight (no shot being taken). Pittsburgh may just have the edge playing Heinz Field with Polamalu and the defense set to go.

By Jason Stein
ProFootball-fans.com Washington Redskins Correspondent