Fearless Prognostications for 2010 – The AFC East

The AFC East is not only likely to be the most competitive division in the AFC, but the most fun to watch. The rivalries are intense, the coaching not only excellent, but both devious and full of braggadocio, and both players and management cheerfully hate each other. The only division that equals it in intensity is perhaps the NFC East.

AFC East

NEW YORK JETS

MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

BUFFALO BILLS

NEW YORK JETS

The order of the division would have differed if Darrelle Revis hadn’t signed his four year deal. Whatever bologna the Jets front office was spewing to the public, they knew that Revis held the cards. After Coach Ryan was sent to Florida on a mission to seal the deal, Revis was signed to a contract with $38 million guaranteed. Of course, both parties said it wasn’t about the money. As former George Young, deceased GM of the New York Giants once stated; “When they say it’s not about the money, it’s always about the money.” The Jets have assembled all of the pieces for a Super Bowl run, but it is all predicated on Revis, whose presence is as vital to the team as Lawrence Taylor’s was to the Giants during their halcyon days. Simply put, Revis completely shuts down the opposition’s star wide-out as no other cornerback has ever done, with the possible exception of Deion Sanders. That allows the Jets to incorporate a variety of blitzing and coverage schemes that sometimes make it seem that they have an extra man on defense. With Revis, their defense can be as good as the 2000 Ravens. Gang Green’s Offensive Line is brilliant, although there is a question-mark at guard, where they possibly should have kept Alan Faneca for another year. Tomlinson and Shonn Greene should be a superior duo, and Mark Sanchez, who has a flock of capable receivers, especially when Santana Holmes comes back after his four week suspension, just has to minimize mistakes.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Much is made of the rivalry between the Patriots and the Jets. The recent conflagration ignited several years ago when former Jet Coach Eric Mangini claimed that the Patriots were illegally videotaping the Jets during the game; Belicheck was later disciplined for this action. There were allegations that the “Cheatriots” had utilized the same tactics in past Super Bowls. This year, of course, Tom Brady has made it plain that he heartily despises the Jets.

However, the real rivalry, under the surface, remains that between former mentor and pupil. The last time they met in the playoffs, Belichick refused to shake hands with is mentor. Although Bill Parcells is not the coach of the Dolphins, he is definitely the Major Domo, calling the shots for his Head Coach Tony Sparano. In there first season together, the Fish won a surprising 11 games; last year there was a slight regression. However, Parcells invariably makes the playoffs in his third season. He has quietly assembled a typical Parcellian squad – a QB who is unspectacular, but makes few mistakes; running backs who like to run between the tackles, chew up time and yardage, and make few fumbles, and a defense that will be in an attacking mode under Mike Nolan, who has worked with Parcells on prior occasions. In order to facilitate the running attack, which is the cornerstone of Parcell’s strategy, he has LT Jake Long, who is an elite player at the most important offensive position outside of QB. And the acquisition of Brandon Marshall will insure that defenses don’t put 8 men in the box to guard the run.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

This is not the same New England team of old. Almost all of the veteran defense - Teddy Bruschi, Lawyer Malloy, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Ty Law – are gone, replaced by unproven youngsters. Like his mentor, Belichick typically eschews playing rookies, but has ILB Brandon Spikes penciled in as a starter in order to solidify the running game. The Patriots were often burnt last season on long runs from scrimmage, including the 80 plus yard run by Ray Rice in the playoffs. On offense, Brady is one year away from his surgery, and should be as effective as he was in his Super bowl years. He still has an aging Randy Moss to throw to, but the remainder of his wide-outs are questionable. None of their running backs are talented enough to stand out, but as a unit they get the job done. The Pats should stay in the playoff race and possibly garner a wild-card berth, but don’t seem likely to get past that point in the uber-competitive AFC.

BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills happen to be placed in the wrong division at the wrong time. If they were ensconced in the NFC West, they could possibly be playoff contenders. In the AFC East, they will be lucky to win 4 games.

Trent Edwards isn’t terrible at quarterback, but last season the offensive line provided Edwards with minimal protection. He appeared shell-shocked towards the end of the season. The poor protection also affected the running game, as Marshawn Lynch was particularly ineffective. This spring they drafted C.J. Spiller, whose speed could nullify the ineptness of the OL. The Bills had similar issues stopping the run. Chan Galley and the front office have made moves in order to strengthen the line backing corp, and the secondary unit is already on par with any in the NFL.

By Paul J. Nebenfuhr
Pro Football Fans Staff Writer