Gang Green Predicts “It’s Curtains” For Steelers
There have been 40 AFC Championship Games since the merger of the AFC and NFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers have played in 15 AFC Championship Games during that span. They have been in 7 Super Bowls, with a record of 6-1. Thus, the Steelers have been in almost 40% of the AFC Championship Games, and close to 20% of all the Super Bowls since 1971. Is their any doubt as to who is the most exceptional franchise in Professional Football since the merger?
On the other hand, since the halcyon days of Super Bowl III 43 seasons ago, the Jets have been in 3 AFC Championship Games. Their record is 0-3. In the last two attempts to get to what Coach Parcells calls “The Big Dance”, including last season, the Jets have had the lead at half time. At around 9:30 PM, EST, we will know whether this is the season that that New York’s finest has a chance to catch the Pot of Gold at the end of Roger Goodell’s rainbow, or whether this is another season of regret’s and might-have-been’s.
The Jets have performed remarkably well in the playoffs thus far, beating the Murderer’s Row of NFL QB’s, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, both on the road. Last week they pulled off the greatest upset in franchise history since being 18 point underdogs to the Colts in 1969, the year Joe Namath shocked the football world. They are the team with the momentum, and look like they could be Destiny’s Darlings.
New York, of course, beat the Steelers 22-17 a month ago at Heinz Field. It was, perhaps, the most important win of the regular season. The Jets were still suffering from the emotional hangover of losing 45-3 to the Patriots. They needed a victory over a legitimate playoff contender to restore their confidence and bodacious mojo. However, Pittsburgh played the game without SS Troy Polamulu, who is perhaps the greatest safety in the history of the sport, revolutionizing the position in the same manner that Lawrence Taylor transformed the concept of Outside Linebacker in the ‘80’s. They also were without their reliable TE Heath Miller. Matt Spaeth, the back-up tight end, dropped two passes in the end zone that day. Both will be playing Sunday, although there is speculation that Polamulu is still hampered by his ankle injury. Although he played well last week against the Ravens, the element of the spectacular was missing. In order for the Jets to complete Rex Ryan’s mission and attempt to run off with the Lombardi Trophy at Jerry Jones Pleasure Palace, they need to pray that Polamulu is merely great, and not extraordinary.
For the Jets to win, they need to have at least a modicum of success with Ground and Pound. Last month, Gang Green rushed for a bit over 100 yards against the Steel Curtain, and averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry. However, that was in a sense a remarkable achievement – the Steelers set a franchise record by allowing just 63 yards rushing per game, an incredible mark. To put it in perspective, the Jets were second in the league in run defense; however, they allowed a shade over 90 yards rushing per game, approximately 30% more yards then Pittsburgh. New York needs to run effectively in order to set up the passing game for Sanchez, as well as to keep the Steelers offense off the field. In the first game, Sanchez was successful throwing short patterns to his two wide-outs, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, as well as to TE Dustin Keller. If the running game is stalled, Pittsburgh will be able to unleash its formidable blitz schemes featuring NFL bad-boy James Harrison (10.5 sacks) as well as LeMarr Woodley (9.5 sacks.). Rex Ryan, who orchestrated outstanding defensive game plans against the Colts as well as the Patriots, has a worthy adversary in Defensive Guru Dick LeBeau, whom Rex describes as an innovator, and a living legend. It goes without saying that Sanchez has to protect the ball at all costs; 3 turnovers by the Baltimore Ravens last week proved pivotal in their loss to the Steelers.
New York’s one weakness on Defense most of the season was an ineffective pass rush, especially from the front four, but that changed considerably against the Colts and Patriots. Tom Brady especially seemed flustered by the constant harassment in the backfield. However, Ben Roethlisberger is not only more mobile then Brady or Manning, but is incredibly strong, and difficult to sack. New York needs to have the same blanket coverage in the secondary that it has shown thus far throughout the playoffs. It is likely that Mike Wallace, perhaps the fastest wide out in the game today, will be exiled to Revis Island. Hines Ward is a reliable receiver and an excellent blocker, but he has lost a step or two, and Cromartie should be able to handcuff him. While Rashard Mendenhall is a top-shelf NFL running back, the Achilles heel of the Steelers is their offensive line, which is frankly, a mess, due to injuries at every position except center. The Jets need to take advantage of this in order to prevail.
The Jets Special Teams were superb against Pittsburgh. However, they have not performed as well in the playoffs thus far. Brad Smith, who opened the game against Pittsburgh with a scintillating 97 yard kickoff return, has been hampered by injuries, and may not play. He would be replaced by Cromartie, who is certainly a threat, but oftentimes makes questionable decisions, especially on punt returns. Punter Steve Weatherford, who has been exemplary throughout the regular season, has retrogressed in the playoffs. It is always an adventure when Nick Folk attempts a field goal; he made the game winning kick against the Colts two weeks ago, but his miss from 30 yards last week could have been disastrous. Jets fans are still traumatized by Doug Brien’s miss 7 years ago against the same Pittsburgh squad, which cost them a chance to go to the Championship Game. Heinz Field is notorious for being the most difficult venue for a kicker; it is virtually impossible to be successful from 50 yards out.
This game promises to be a treat for all viewers, but all Jets fans with coronary conditions may want to eschew viewing. It promises to be close, brutal, and low scoring. The feeling here is that the Jets have the slight edge. Look for a score of Jets 17, Pittsburgh 14.
And pray.
Pray very hard.
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Destiny’s Darlings vow they will be on the first Sunday night in February, playing in the Super Bowl at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
It’s what he sees in the wild eyes of his teammates, in the meeting rooms, on the practice field, that tells him everything he needs to know, everything Jets fans need to know.
“I feel like every one of these guys should be locked up,” Slauson said. Because you look at ’em and you’re saying, ‘They might kill somebody out there!’ And it’s an incredible feeling, and I can see that every day — the sense of urgency, the energy, the excitement.”
James Ihedigbo was asked what message he would have for Jets fans, and he said:
“Stock the refrigerator full of champagne and get ready to celebrate,” he said.
Coach Rex Ryan talked about a beat-up Ravens team that lost in Pittsburgh two years ago 60 minutes from the Super Bowl and said: “We fell short. But not this time."
There has been a distinctly different feel to this playoff week as the Jets have prepped for their AFC Championship against the Steelers Sunday at Heinz Field. There’s been no hate, no trash talking, no bold predictions. Just a lot of respect for the Steelers and quiet, confident preparation.
“This is a triple-chinstrap game, a straight-ahead, no-fare-dodging game,” Rex Ryan said. “Both teams are built the same. It’s going to be one heck of a game to watch.”
JETS PASS OFFENSE vs STEELERS PASS DEFENSE
Mark Sanchez, who survived a shaky first three quarters in the 17-16 Wild Card win over the Colts and who was misfiring early in the 28-21 Divisional win over New England, must be sharper early in this game. He was at his best in the Jets 22-17 win over the Steelers last month, getting into a rhythm with some short passes to WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards and TE Dustin Keller. Look for Sanchez to throw to Keller and RB LaDainian Tomlinson out of the backfield, using some misdirection screens to offset the aggressive Steelers pass rush. The Steelers terrorize quarterbacks with In the teams’ last meeting, the Jets’ offensive line kept those pass rushers away from Sanchez. The most critical element to the Pittsburgh defense is who missed the first Jets game with an ankle injury. Polamalu will make it more difficult for Sanchez to complete those quick slant passes over the middle.
Edge: Even
The Jets need Shonn Greene to be at his most physical and for Tomlinson to have the same bounce in his step he showed against the Colts. Pittsburgh, which allowed five rushing touchdowns all season, Edge: Steelers
STEELERS PASS OFFENSE vs JETS PASS DEFENSE
Mike Wallace (60 catches, 21-yard average 10 TDs) is perhaps the fastest outside receiver in the NFL. Hines Ward (59 catches, five TDs) is perhaps the toughest and most dependable, and is a beast in the blocking game. Then there are rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom had terrific performances against the Ravens last week. These are a lot of targets for QB Ben, who is a major threat keeping plays alive with his scrambling in and out of the pocket. Look for the Jets to use a spy on Roethlisberger to keep him contained. CB Darrelle Revis likes to cover the outside deep threat, and likely will be on Wallace a lot, though CB Antonio Cromartie covered Wallace a lot last game. Wallace had seven catches for 102 yards in that game, so look for the Jets to shake things up.
STEELERS RUN OFFENSE vs JETS RUN DEFENSE
The Steelers are led by RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 rushing yards, 13 TDs). He was held down by the Ravens last week (20 carries, 46 yards) but scored two touchdowns. He carried 17 times for 99 yards and a touchdown vs. the Jets. The Steelers’ line is banged up, with RT Flozell Adams in and out of the last game. The Jets are No. 3 in the NFL in run defense, allowing 90.9 yards per game. They’ve allowed an average of 103 yards in two playoff games. The Jets will need big games from interior DLs Sione Pouha Mike DeVito and Shaun Ellis, who wrecked the Patriots. LBs David Harris, Bart Scott, Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace must be active, too, because if the Steelers are able to run, Roethlisberger will have his way with the defense.
Edge: Jets
SPECIAL TEAMS
The wild card is Brad Smith, who was second in the NFL in kickoff returns with a 28.6-yard average and two TDs, including his 97-yarder against the Steelers to open the game last month. Smith missed last week’s game because of a groin injury but it looks as if he’ll play Sunday. If he can’t return kicks, Cromartie, who averaged 31.8 yards in Smith’s absence, is a Edge: Jets
KICKING GAME
Jets PK Nick Folk (30-for-39 on field goals) went from kicking a game-winner in Indianapolis to missing a 30-yarder vs. the Patriots that could have been costly. This game is likely to come down to a field goal, and the Jets need Folk to be at his best in a stadium that is difficult to kick in. They do not want another Doug Brien nightmare to unfold. Of mild concern, too, is punter Steve Weatherford, who has followed up a terrific regular season (42 punts inside the 20, four touchbacks) with a terrible two playoff games (six touchbacks and a 27.8-yard net). Steelers PK Shaun Suisham was 14-of-15 on field goals in the regular season, but did miss a 43-yarder last week. He is dependable and has had a half season in Pittsburgh to get used to Heinz Field. Jason Kapinos is an average punter, though he did have a strong game last week.
Edge: Even
COACHING
Great meeting of defensive minds with Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine matching wits with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin and Dick LeBeau. Ryan is an emotional leader, and Tomlin, who is 4-1 in the postseason with a Super Bowl win, is the strong, silent type. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer might have called his best game of the season in the teams’ prior meeting, brilliantly straying from tendencies to keep the Pittsburgh defense off balance. He had the perfect mix of run and pass, got Sanchez into a rhythm and used deception well. The Jets will need that and maybe more.
Edge: Even
INTANGIBLES
The Jets are legitimate road warriors, having won eight of their 10 games away from home this season, including two playoff games. Though Heinz Field is a tough place to play, the Steelers are 6-3 there this season. The
This will be a bruising game, a struggle that likely will be decided by a field goal or a big special teams play. The Jets and Steelers are even on most areas. The difference for the Jets will be on special teams and their ability to protect the ball.
JETS 21, STEELERS 20
Here are five factors from that Dec. 19 victory that will be important to watch for in this weekend’s AFC Championship:
NO TROY OR MILLER
The injury absences of Pittsburgh’s defensive linchpin in Troy Polamalu and one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite receiving targets in tight end Heath Miller can’t be underestimated.
Without the fearsome Polamalu, arguably among the best run-stuffing safeties in NFL history, the Jets rushed for 106 yards — not a huge number, but still the highest total allowed by the Steelers all season.
The Jets didn’t exactly run all over the Polamalu-less Steelers that day, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards, but that was almost beside the point.
The bigger point: The running game was effective enough that the Jets could keep going to it throughout the game, which enabled them to control the clock on the road — a crucial goal for any road team in a hostile environment like Heinz Field.
SANCHEZ WAS MISTAKE-FREE
Sanchez didn’t have big numbers, completing just 19 of 29 passes for 170 yards and no touchdown passes, but he also didn’t allow Pittsburgh’s defense the tidal wave of momentum it gets at home from turnovers. And who can forget that beautifully executed bootleg in the third quarter that ended with a 7-yard Sanchez touchdown run?
Sanchez has just one turnover in these playoffs, and will have to take care of the ball. Just ask the Ravens what can happen when you keep giving it back to the Steelers.
VERY SPECIAL TEAMS
Starting with Brad Smith’s 97-yard return for a touchdown on the opening kickoff, the Jets’ special-teams units couldn’t have performed much better. Not only did Nick Folk make two short field goals that ended up providing the margin of victory in a five-point game, punter Steve Weatherford overcame snowy conditions to drop three punts inside the Pittsburgh 20-yard line.
Pittsburgh’s return game was thoroughly contained as the Jets dominated on special teams. A repeat Sunday would come in handy.
PRIDE & EMOTION
Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time all season, including the 45-3 humiliation at New England, the Jets pretty much had their backs to the wall going into Pittsburgh last month. Rex Ryan’s team responded with a gut-check performance.
Just making it to Sunday’s AFC Championship required the Jets beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady — two of the best quarterbacks in NFL history — and doing it on the road.
To get to the Super Bowl, all they have to do is go into Heinz Field and beat two-time world champion Ben Roethlisberger. Nobody ever said this was going to be easy.
But the way Rex Ryan and the Jets schemed to beat Manning and Brady was so masterful that it could offer a blueprint to toppling Big Ben and the mighty Steelers.
the Jets could replicate this weekend to stamp their ticket to Super Bowl XLV:
RELY ON THE D-LINE
Unlike with Manning and Brady, the Jets can both pressure and sack Roethlisberger without heavy blitzing.
Why? Simple: The Steelers’ offensive line stinks.
Not only was Roethlisberger sacked 32 times in 12 regular-season starts, including five times each by the Patriots and Bills, but Baltimore battered him with six sacks and constant pressure in the divisional round last week.
FLOOD THE MIDDLE
Dropping linebackers into coverage in their base 3-4 defense and keeping the extra defensive backs in the Jets’ “sub” packages concentrated between the hash marks was a stroke of genius by Ryan last week.
Almost to a man, the Patriots credited the Jets’ clogging the middle of the field with uncharacteristic zone coverage as a big reason for the final outcome.
RIDE REVIS & CROMARTIE
The Jets’ successful game plan in New England was fueled by the typically tenacious and terrific play of the starting cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie.
Revis took the No. 1 receiving targets of the Colts and Patriots — Reggie Wayne and Deion Branch — and rendered them invisible in the back-to-back Jets wins.
Cromartie struggled with Indianapolis’ Pierre Garcon in the wild-card round but bounced back strong last week against Welker and Justin Edelman, who combined for 69 yards on eight catches.
By: Paul J. Nebenfuhr
ProFootball-fans.com New York Jets Correspondent