Super Bowl XLV – Pregame Analysis

As we would expect coming into February, there has been talk surrounding the two Super Bowl teams. Even over here in the UK, the radio stations are talking a little less about soccer and more about the NFL. Who is going to win and who is the favorite etc.

I mentioned in my last article that the Packers would win and here’s why.

No team is going to be able to run the ball. It’s a fact. Nobody has been able to run the ball consistently against Pittsburgh all season and Green Bay are equally harsh against the ground game. Therefore, I think it’s useless to ask the rookie James Starks to provide any sort lift for Green Bay. Pittsburgh has got the edge here, but only slightly. Big BJ Raji will definitely have a big part to play as he hopes to build upon the monster game that he had against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship game.

In the passing game, Rogers has been excellent all year. In two of the games that Green Bay lost in the regular season, he was sitting on the sideline. The other four were ended either by overtime field-goals or by field-goals in the final seconds of regulation. He has an unbelievable receiving core to work with including Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and he has shown great poise at the quarterback position, while remaining sharp and alert against the different looks that defences show. We all know how much of a genius Dick LeBeau is when it comes to disguising his coverages and it takes a special kind of football mind to decode a LeBeau defence. There is talk of the overload blitz by the Steelers creating a problem for the Green Bay offence, but Aaron Rogers understands the game so well and will have watched Steelers game film as many times as I’ve watched Pulp Fiction. And that’s a lot.

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Roethlisberger on the other hand, has not been amazing in the playoffs so far. Interestingly, he did not have a great game last week against the Jets but they still managed to win. The key with Roethlisberger is that he makes plays when it counts. I can’t stress this enough. A quarterback’s rating becomes irrelevant when that player is able to make big plays when it matters the most. Not to mention that Big Ben is looking for his third Super Bowl win. He has been there, done it and got the T-shirt so no doubt he will no more about what is in store for him come February 6 th than Rogers.

This will definitely be a pass orientated game. Let’s not forget that Roethlisberger will have pro bowler Clay Matthews breathing down his neck and Tramon Williams looking to further his already impressive playoff interception total.

Both teams allowed their opponents back into the game in the second half of their respective championship games after great first halves. Neither team can afford to do that in the Super Bowl. Rogers needs to come out of the gates fast and not allow Ben to get his hands on the ball for long stretches of time. It will be doubly difficult if the running game is as shut down as I fear it might be, but if the Green Bay offensive line continues to do its thing, who knows, maybe we will see this Pittsburgh run defence finally meet its match.

I have got the Packers winning this one, but it will certainly not be a blow-out. I can’t decide whether there will be lots of points or not. I am going to sit on the fence on that one, but I am definitely sticking with Green Bay.

All the best from the UK!

By Tom Greenhalgh
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer