Arena Football League Playoffs - Divisional Round Preview

Colorado vs San Jose

Colorado is coming off a road win against Utah and they will need the same type of defensive performance when they travel to San Jose. Holding the Blaze to just 44 points and forcing quarterback Joe Germaine to settle for short completions and lengthy scoring drives kept Colorado competitive and in a position to pull off the upset. Crush quarterback John Dutton struggled early in the game, but regained his poise and led his team to several second half touchdowns. Dutton will have to be content with completing short and intermediate routes, such as crossing patterns, screens, and slants. Colorado is capable of scoring against any defense, but since San Jose will likely play very deep coverage to prevent long passes, the Crush need to be patient. On defense, putting pressure on the quarterback is a necessity since the secondary allows a high completion rate.

Colorado on offense: In the victory last week, Dutton averaged a little under seven yards per pass attempt, much lower than what he and the offense is accustomed to. Utah was somewhat effective in forcing him to check down to his second and third options, and the San Jose defense will be a more experienced and talented unit. The Sabercats have the ability to force turnovers at home, so Dutton will need to take whatever the defense gives him and look for high percentage passes. Wendell Williams needs to be productive as the third option for the Crush because San Jose will try to take away either Ben Nelson or Willie Quinnie, the two main Crush receivers. By completing the short and check down passes, it may open up an opportunity for deeper routes later in the game, if the Sabercats defense does decide to play closer to the line of scrimmage. Colorado has to come out strong on offense in the first half because if they fall behind, they are not equipped to make a comeback.

Colorado on defense: The Crush were able to generate a strong pass rush and force Joe Germaine to scramble and throw off balance. In their victories, Colorado's defensive line has played well and hopefully this week will produce another effective game from them. Colorado also allowed a low amount of yards after the catch against Utah and the linebackers have been a little above average this season. They can make tackles and cut off timing routes. The weakness is still the secondary because of the high completion rate and long completions given up. Defensive backs are out of position when going up to contest a pass or are already beat on deep passes. Colorado's focus should be on preventing long completions and short scoring drives and to do that, they will need to play deep in coverage and give up the shorter routes. On the road, the defense has a tendency to be inconsistent and occasionally lacking energy, this would be a good time for some improvement.

San Jose will begin their quest to repeat as ArenaBowl champions when they host a divisional game aginst Colorado. The Sabercats went on a winning streak to end the season after a shaky start during the first eight games. Mark Grieb has had another good season at quarterback and Cleannord Saintil has stepped up as the top receiver on this team, with the most receiving yards and touchdowns. Along with James Roe and Rodney Wright, the Sabercats have three receivers with more than 1,000 yards and 25 touchdowns for the year. As usual, San Jose is one of the best teams in pass protection and Grieb has rarely been sacked. The defense is not at the level they were last year, but at home they are a better unit. The defensive backs gave up more yards and quick touchdowns in the regular season compared to last year, and they should come out focused and ready to perform, knowing they have something to prove.

San Jose on offense: Mark Grieb and the Sabercats offense just try to be efficient on each possession and are hoping to set themselves up for touchdowns. San Jose completes a lot of short passes and usually those are to wide open receivers. They convert first downs with ease and this leads to many scoring opportunities. Cleannord saintil can get open on deep routes and with his speed, can easily beat his defensive back in coverage. James Roe and Rodney Wright are reliable for first down completions and touchdowns in goal line situations. In home games, San Jose regularly scores 60 or 70 points and with the added crowd advantage, they are capable of putting up a similar performance against Colorado. Expect San Jose to score early and force Colorado to come from behind in the second half.

San Jose on defense: The trademark of this defense is the pass rush and tackling. San Jose has constantly put pressure on the quarterback throughout this season, and if last year's playoff run was any indication, it will continue in the matchup against Colorado. The defensive line has good size and strength and they are smart enough to block and move around offensive linemen. San Jose doesn't allow too many yards after the catch because defenders tackle with proper form and are in the right position to make plays. San Jose will be tested by the Colorado passing attack and will need to force them to settle for the shorter passes and secondary routes. If San Jose lets the Crush complete a lot of long passes, the game will be closer than expected and the outcome certainly in doubt. Still, even with the fight that will be put up by the Crush, the Sabercats defense should be prepared and capable of contributing to a victory.

Prediction: San Jose 69, Colorado 59

New York vs Philadelphia

The Dragons are coming off a shocking road win against the heavily favored Dallas Desperados. Aaron Garcia had an amazing game with 9 touchdowns and 330 yards. Receiver Terry Moss replaced the injured Jason Willis and caught 11 passes for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns. After an interception on the first possession, New York scored 11 touchdowns and set a franchise record with 77 points in a postseason game. "It wasn't just Moss, it was the entire receiving core that got it done. Give the offensive coordinator and aaron credit, they came up with a good game plan. New York did not play partucularly well on defense, surrendering 63 points, but the special teams unit recovered two onside kicks that turned the momentum in their favor. Against Philadelphia, the Dragons have struggled on offense, scoring 42 and 30 points in each of their regular season losses. With a star receiver injured, another perfect game plan will have to be executed for New York to have a realistic chance at winning.

New York on offense: Aaron Garcia was productive in the victory over Dallas because he got excellent pass protection and was able to mix up short and long passes to loosen up the defensive coverage. Philadelphia has one of the best defensive lines and will bring pressure on Garcia throughout the game. New York can still score consistently when completing shorter passes and that is what they may need to do. Garcia and his receivers have good communication and are able to make adjustments according to defensive alignments. Philadelphia does not allow many long completions since they drop back in coverage and keep the ball in front of them. In this matchup, New York will probably stress the improtance of pass protection and a ball control offense, focusing on getting easy completions and making first downs to continue possessions. The Dragons can't afford to fall behind or else their postseason run will come to an end.

New York on defense: New York has the talent and players necessary to have a strong defense, but they have been inconsistent through various stages in the season. In one game, they will hold a team to 40 points, in the next they will allow over 60. New York showed the potential for a solid red zone defense, producing turnovers and stops on some possessions. The Dragons have a pretty low completion percentage but that can be misleading since they also allow a lot of long gains. The players and coaches know that the talent is there but the problem is being able to stay energized and committed on the field. New York will need to limit yards after the catch against the explosive receiving unit of the Soul. They also need to create turnovers since the pass coverage is not good enough to force stops on their own. How the Dragons perform in the first few possessions will be an indicator of the entire game.

Philadelphia was the last undefeated team and finished with the best record in the regular season. Now they hope all of their accomplishements will translate into the same type of success in the postseason. The Soul have two great quarterbacks in Matt D'Orazio and Tony Graziani and both are expected to get playing time. On offense, it doesn't seem like their is a weakness, but mistakes such as penalties and turnovers can slow down the team. The Soul can move the ball at will with Chris Jackson and Larry Brackins leading the offense down the field. Those two have combined for over 3,000 yards and 78 touchdowns on the season. Philadelphia has the opportunity to call running plays near the goal line or as a surprise with a powerful fullback in Wes Ours. Philadelphia shouldn't have much difficulty in scoring and the defense creates a lot of turnovers at home.

Philadelphia on offense: The Soul have a very high pass completion rate so most plays are for positive yardage or first downs. Both Jackson and Brackins have been on top of their game and their determination and energy should be displayed in productive games for each of them. Matt D'Orazio will start the game and get most of the snaps, but if Graziani is in for a few possesions, he is more than capable of leading his team to scores. The Soul attempt more deep routes at home, trying to build on their monentum and stretch leads. Deep post routes, crossing patterns, and go routes down the sidelines will allow for long gains. New York has a shaky defense when on the road, so Philadelphia will be able to exploit that weakness and look for a big game. The offense will be fine, if the Soul don't win this game, it will be because of the points allowed.

Philadelphia on defense: The Soul try to take away long completions and force teams to move the ball with short passes. Defensive backs don't get beat very often for quick touchdowns and are looking for the interception. Philadelphia excels at putting pressure on the quarterback and they have the advantage in this matchup with a bigger defensive line and more speed. The Soul will hope to make Garcia scramble and throw on the run, where he can be considerably less accurate. The Soul tackle well and keep receivers in front of them. Additional yards will be tough to come by for New York and their receivers will have to protect the ball against fumbles. The Soul don't need to have a great game to win, they just need to make a few stops and do enough to keep the lead. With all of the weapons on offense, the Soul should be able to be somewhat effective on defense.

Prediction: Philadelphia 56, New York 51

Grand Rapids vs Chicago

James MacPherson has become a much better quarterback in the second half of the season and in last week's playoff game. He does not have speed or the ability to scramble but is still accurate and filled with game intelligence. MacPherson doesn't try to force passes into tight spots and when the offensive line is blocking well, rarely turns the ball over. Kenny Higgins and Cole Magner have stepped up as the primary receivers on this team. Higgins is always a threat on deep routes and can run after the catch. Magner is a big receiver and is good for shorter completions, especially near the end zone. The Rampage offense can score on one play if a receiver is open, and with that quick-strike ability are never out of a game. The defense has played better because they are preventing deep passes and playing tight coverage on receivers. The secondary had made nice improvements and in the last game, the pass rush finally showed up for a complete game performance. The Rampage may not have the same success against Chicago, but can stay competitive longer than expected.

Grand Rapids on offense: The Rampage constantly look for the deep pass and are trying to score as quickly as possible. In the begeinning of the season, this lead to a lot of turnovers but now MacPherson is being a little more selective with his pass attempts and the receivers are making catches. Kenny Higgins will need to have a big game since he is the main threat and is thrown to for first downs and important plays. Magner is a reliable receiver near the end zone and can be used for fade routes and jump balls to score touchdowns. With his size, he can also be used as a decoy for passes to Jermaine Lewis or Jason Shelley, the secondary receivers on the team. The offensive line will need to provide good protection because Chicago has a great defensive line and can easily disrupt the passing game. The scoring output by Grand Rapids is going to be determined by how much time MacPherson has to throw.

Grand Rapids on defense: The defensive line for the Rampage is average and will create some pressure, but not enough to keep a quarterback off target for an entire game. The Rampage have not produced many sacks this year and probabaly won't get many against Chicago. The key factor will be the play of the secondary. Chicago has a nearly unstoppable offense at home and hasn't slowed down at any point in the season. The defensive backs will have to display the same performance as in last week's game, only against a much tougher opponent. The linebackers have been in a good position to bring down receivers after completions and need to react to the routes run by Rush receivers. Grand Rapids has to slow down Chicago either by jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage to cut off their routes or by playing tight coverage and forcing check down passes and secondary routes to be used.

Chicago has the most balanced team in their conference and they are hoping this year they make it back to the ArenaBowl. Russ Michna filled in for Sherdrick Bonner at quarterback and led the Rush to consistent gains and scores. He is patient with a strong arm and solid intelligence. The receiving unit is very explosive and like Grand Rapids can score on any play. However, the receivers for Chicago are way more experienced and have lots of playoff games behind them. Damien Harrell is an all-star receiver every season and with great performances from Donovan Morgan and Travis LaTendresse, the Rush seem to never run out of options. The defense excels at the pass rush and forcing turnovers. When quarterbacks are forced out of the pocket, then the offense can be quickly contained. The defensive backs make plays when the outcome is in doubt and they will bounce back from easy touchdowns and other mistakes in coverage.

Chicago on offense: Russ Michna will look to take control of this game by getting touchdowns early in the first half and gradually building on the team performance. The Rush rarely come up with empty possessions in the beginning stages of a game and this time it shouldn't be any different. Damian Harrell and Donovan Morgan will be thrown to for long passes and whwnever the offense is in position to score. Although those two will get the majority of passes, Travis LaTendresse plays an improtant role in gaining first downs and being a third option near the goal line. Any receiver that is open will get their share of completions and touchdowns. With a solid offensicve line, the Rush should be able to put up points against a Grand Rapids defense that is playwing well but is very inexperienced and has difficulties against top teams.

Chicago on defense: At home, Chicago will try to force turnovers and take away momentum from Grand Rapids. The defensive line is bigger and faster than the Rampage offensive line and will get into the backfield to create confusion and chaos. If the Rush can consistently force James MacPherson to scramble, then quick touchdowns and long gains won't be occuring. The tackling is solid from all areas of the defense so Grand Rapids will still get completions, but won't be turning them into big plays. Chicago is definitely equipped to shut down an opposing offense since they don't allow easy gains or quick scores. They should be playing with a lead for the majority of the game considering the strengths on offense, so the Rush will probably be in a comfortable position in the second half and near the end of the game. A decent outing will likely lead to a victory for this team.

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

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