Arena Football League Week 13 Preview

Cleveland vs Tampa Bay

Cleveland has been playing very well in recent weeks, with three consecutive wins over Philadelphia, Orlando, and now Colorado. The defense has become more physical and intense, holding their opponent to under 50 points for the second game in a row. Raymond Philyaw threw for 6 touchdowns and Otis Amey was the top receiver with 131 yards and 4 scores. Cleveland limited Colorado to less than 7 yards per passing attempt. After another strong performance, Otis Amey needs just 7 more yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and when he does it will be the first time this franchise will have multiple receivers with 1000 yard seasons. Cleveland goes on the road for a tough game since Tampa Bay has won 3 out of their last 4, and the Gladiators will need to execute their high percentage passing plays, pick up modest gains that will lead to scores, and have solid tackling on defense.

Cleveland on offense: The Gladiators are dependent on their two best receivers, Robert Redd and Otis Amey. If either has a poor game, then there is almost no chance of a Cleveland victory. Raymond Philyaw is a solid quarterback and is able to keep his team composed at all times and he also has good arm strength and mental toughness. Philyaw can be counted on to find open receivers, and even though he isn't very quick, he can avoid sacks and keep plays alive. Both Redd ans Amey are speedy and capable of catching any type of pass, whether it's a deep out, slant, crossing pattern, etc. They can make adjustments to catch passes that are thrown off target. The key for the Gladiators is a high completion rate because they won't have too many long gains against an aggressive Tampa Bay defense. Cleveland needs to use ball possession and lengthy drives to stay on the field and score. If the offense can avoid turning the ball over they will be okay.

Cleveland on defense: In recent games, the Gladiators have been much better at pressuring the quarterback. They have taken offenses out of rhythm by making the quarterback scramble and it has affected the accuracy of many passes. Cleveland is not forcing a lot of sacks, but just hitting a passer can take him out of his comfort zone. Duting the beginning of the season, Cleveland made mental mistakes and had inconsistent coverage on receivers, sometimes double teaming one receiver and letting another get by wide open, or getting faked out on routes and giving up an easy completion. Now it seems the defensive backs and linebackers have gotten used to playing with each other and they have been able to adapt to any changes or variations on plays from opposing offenses. Tampa Bay is a ball control offense that looks for short and easy completions so good tackling is a necessity for the Gladiators.

Tampa Bay will look to improve their playoff positioning and continue with their good execution on the field. The Storm enter a difficult stretch of the season, with the next three games coming against conference teams currently in a playoff spot. After this game, Tampa Bay plays Georgia and Orlando, both of which are division opponents. In the last two wins, Brett Dietz has thrown for a total of 9 touchdowns and the Storm have cut down on their turnovers. Each game will be equally improtant for the rest of the season, as Tampa Bay is currently in a tie with Georgia for the last playoff spot. Four out of their last five games are against teams with winning records, so if the Storm make the playoffs, they definitely will have earned it, but their quest will have to start with a victory over a decent Cleveland team.

Tampa Bay on offense: The Storm are a methodical offense. They will take chances and go for big plays but only when the opportunity presents itself. Brett Dietz and his receivers are more likely to connect on shorter passes and work their way down the field for a score. The Storm are more than capable of gaining yards but they have had turnovers in good scoring opportunities, such as in goal line situations or inside opponent's territory. Tampa Bay has three good receicers in Hank Edwards, Lawrence Samuels, and Terrill Shaw, and the offense looks for production out of all three. The good thing is that the Storm has not been making silly mistakes like dropped passes or fumbles after a reception. When Tampa Bay is near the end zone, they have a great fullback in Torrance Marshall, and his toughness and power gives them additional options in their play calling. Marshall is second in the league with 16 rushing touchdowns, trailing only Marlion Jackson of Cleveland.

Tampa Bay on defense: This team has been known for their physical style of play, especially when it comes to tackling and quarterback pressure. During their recent wins, the Storm have been doing both. Tampa Bay has pressured opposing quarterbacks, and the amount of hits, incompletions, and turnovers have all increased. The defensive line is getting penetration and the linemen are finding their way to the quarterback. The Storm have forced teams to go to second or third options in the passing game. Tampa Bay doesn't mind allowing completions if they are for short gains because they can tackle well. The shorter passes are also a result of tighter and more accurate coverage by the secondary. Cleveland will probably attempt some long passes so the Storm have to guard against that.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 59, Cleveland 49

Dallas vs Orlando

Dallas is in complete shock after a 55-54 home loss to Arizona. It was the first time the Desperados has lost a home game all season, but how it occured was even more of a surprise. Dallas trailed by one point after a low scoring first half and actually lead with under a minute reamining. Arizona scored to go ahead by two points with 31 seconds left, Dallas scored on one play to take back the lead, but Arizona completed a pass to the end zone as time expired for the winning touchdown. Although it may not look like a bad overall defensive effort from looking at the final score, Dallas allowed 40 points and 6 touchdowns in the second half, and the sudden struggles on this end cost them an expected victory. Dallas will look to rebound but they face a stiff challenge from Orlando, which would like to prove itself as a championship contender by defeating a premier team at home.

Dallas on offense: There is nothing that will scare Clint Dolezel and he is one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the league. He is accurate, has great communication with other offensive players, is a leader on the field, and even calls his own plays. He will throw to open receivers and deliver the ball exactly where it should be. Dolezel is a good competitor and tells his teammates when they need to make adjustments. Marcus Nash and Will Pettis are consistent receivers and can be expected to put up around 100 yards with multiple touchdowns receptions each game. They will make the important catches and change the momentum of a game. The completion percentage is slightly lower for Dallas but it's because they are attempting longer passes and trying to be more explosive on offense. Orlando's defense is about average and not what it used to be in past years, so Dallas will likely test the defensive backs with deep routes.

Dallas on defense: The Desperados have had another good season on defense and they are hoping it continues into this game. Dallas is allowing just 46 points per game, second in the league. They might be allowing opponents to complete over two thirds of their passes, but most are going for short gains. Dallas is letting teams complete five yard passes if it means preventing a long gain. The Desperaods force teams to start in poor field position and they have good kickoff coverage. Very often, Dallas forces a team to start from inside their own ten yard line after a solid tackle during the kick return. Orlando will try to open up their offense with some deep passes, so Dallas has to be ready for anything that might come their way.

Orlando has split the last 4 games and it seems like they are struggling a little on offense. In the two losses, they were held under 50 points. The defense is still at the same level of play, but now that the Predators are not scoring as many points, they haven't been winning like they used to. Orlando has to have another receiver step up and be more productive, because T.T Toliver has had great games but can't do everything by himself. Shane Stafford is still doing fine, but since there are no easy scores or big plays during games, the points will be harder to come by. Orlando is at home where they play better and feed off the energy from the crowd, and they will have to use that as extra motivation to put themselves in a position for a win.

Orlando on offense: The Predators have not had those quick scores or game-changing plays that used to provide for decisive victories. When they returned a kickoff for a touchdown or forced consecutive turnovers on defense, it provided extra emotion and energy for each player on the team. The offense benefited from better field position and playing with the lead. Now that the offense is doing everything from scratch, it's becoming much more difficult and the results are showing. Stafford will probably have another good game and so will T.T Toliver. Other receivers like Ron Johnson and Chas Gessner have to contribute and add to the scoring. There have been scoring chances for Orlando in previous games, but turnovers or quarterback pressure have been barriers for the offense. Against a top defense, Orlando will need to make the most of their opportunities and complete a high percentage of their passes to keep it a close game.

Orlando on defense: The Predators are in the middle of the pack in every defensive category and that is how the unit performs on the field. Orlando has made a few stops during games, but it has not completely taken an offense out of sync. The pass rush is average and it hasn't frustrated offenses and made quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket. Quarterbacks still have time to throw and they are finding receivers. The tackling is pretty good, but when a lot of passes are completed, or when a team starts in excellent field position, then creating stops will be a challenge. Orlando will struggle to pressure the quarterback because Dallas has a great offensive line, so the Predators should focus on limiting yards after the catch and red zone defense. If they can hold Dallas to a field goal on a couple of possesions and create a couple of turnovers, they may have a chance to win this game.

Prediction: Dallas 55, Orlando 49

Georgia vs New Orleans

Georgia has won three games in a row and are currently in the final playoff spot in the National Conference. Coming off a 72-67 victory over New York, Chris Greisen and the Force receivers are in rhythm and show no signs of slowing down. The offensive line has provided lots of time for Greisen to throw and passes are being completed with receivers in stride, allowing them opportunities to gain yards after the catch. Greisen feels it's his responsibility to make completions and lead his team down the field, doing it one possession at a time. The Force have been winning because of their offensive success and ability to comeback in the second half of games. In their last two victories, Georgia has rallied from a double-digit defecit. Although the Force only ranks in the middle of the league in scoring and total defense, they did hold New Orleans to 39 points in the first matchup, but playing on the road will be a different challenge for them.

Georgia on offense: Whenever a quarterback is playing very well, the offense will score with ease. Greisen has been on fire, completing pass after pass and throwing touchdowns on almost every possession. The pass protection has allowed him to stay in the pocket and throw from a comfortable position. Deeper routes are developing because Greisen can hold onto the ball and receivers are feeling relaxed. Georgia has been successful with routes of twenty yards or more, leading to a lot of quick scores. The VooDoo secondary is among the best in forcing interceptions and the Force will be more than happy to take what the defense gives them. Making first downs and having a high completion rate are goals that the Force must acheive to score in this game. If they are able to convert on long passes, it will complement the shorter routes that will be a major part of their strategy.

Georgia on defense: Allowing 60 points per game is okay if the offense is scoring on each drive, but eventually Georgia will need to create turnovers. The Force struggle at trying to stop teams on third and fourth downs, so fumbles and interceptions will probably be the only way they get stops. Georgia has improved at preventing big plays, but they still allow lots of first downs. If the Force can generate a pass rush and make VooDoo quarterback Danny Wimprine scramble and throw off balance, then their offense may be contained. Besides quarterback pressure, red zone defrense will be important and Georgia would be satisfied with limiting New Orleans to field goals.

New Orleans has lost consecutive games and after their amazing start, it will be tough for them to win the division, although they are pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot. Gaining momentum before entering the postseason is something that needs to be done, since the team is so dependent upon crowd support and team chemistry. The VooDoo don't have the best players, but always perform as a team and that is what carries them to victories. New Orleans is 5-0 at home and this game is crucial to the divisional race. A win lets them stay in first place and a half game ahead of Orlando while a loss puts them in a second place tie with Georgia and a full game behind the lead. New Orleans will look to take an early lead and use the fan support to catapault themselves to a nice win.

New Orleans on offense: Danny Wimprine has proven himself as a premier quarterback in this league, despite it being his first season as a starter. He can complete a variety of passes and makes sure his teammates are focused on the task that needs to be performed. With his ability to throw an accurate deep pass, the VooDoo are a high scoring and explosive offense. New Orleans has solid receivers who have good hands and are very quick. Speed is what the receiving unit was built on. The offensive line has good size and they block extremely well. Wimprine rarely gets sacked and is always comfortable. New Orleans will likely test the Georgia defensive backs with a lot of deep routes and since they are at home, it should give the crowd a chance to become energized.

New Orleans on defense: The VooDoo have a good defensive line and it will counter the toughness on Georgia's offensive line. Considering this, New Orleans probably won't be able to sack Greisen, although they should be able to put some pressure on him. In open space, New Orleans is great at tackling while Georgia's receivers can gain lots of yards after the catch. This is another even battle and it will come down to execution. New Orleans has the advantage in their secondary as this unit is at the top of the league in interceptions. They are also good at red zone defense and stopping teams on third down. If the VooDoo can stop the Force near the goal line or in third and short then they will jump out to a big lead. If Georgia's receivers can beat the coverage provided by the defensive backs, then New Orleans will be in for a long night. I see the VooDoo doing just enough to get the win.

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

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