Arena Football League Week 14 Preview

Columbus vs New Orleans

Columbus is coming off a grueling 43-41 victory over the New York Dragons. The slow and methodical offensive strategy was enough to wear out the Dragons defense and keep opposing quarterback Aaron Garcia off the field. Matt Nagy guided Columbus to a lot of first downs and eventual touchdowns. The Destroyers had several scoring possessions of five minutes or more and controlled the flow of the game. At this point in the season, Columbus is out of playoff consideration and they are just trying to find the right players for their offensive and defensive systems while seeing which plays and formations work best for each unit. Columbus will continue with their ball control offense in this game and throughout the remainder of their schedule. The defense is actually a little above average and the Destroyers will hope to limit New Orleans to short, check-down completions.

Columbus on offense: As a quarterback, Matt Nagy is well equipped to lead the team. He has good arm strength and can accurately throw the deep ball. The lack of experience and speed in the receiving core for Columbus is what is hurting the offense. Too often, the Destroyers are forced to rely on short passes of less than ten yards because the receivers are unable to break away from coverage on longer routes. Derek Lee is the only receiver that is reliable on long passes. Although Nagy is capable of a high completion rate, Columbus sometimes struggles to score when inside opponent's territory. When the field becomes more congested near the end zone, the Destroyers don't have receivers that can easily escape defenders or adjust routes. The best scenario for Columbus is to win the time of possession with extensive scoring drives, which would be holding onto the ball for an average of five minutes or more.

Columbus on defense: There is hope for the Destroyers to contain the fast receivers on the VooDoo. Last week, New Orleans struggled when the deep routes were taken away and there were no big plays to ignite the home crowd. New Orleans is built to be a quick-strike offense and they are looking for the one play that will set themselves up for a score. Columbus is pretty good at preventing long gains, and they have shut down the top receiver on the opposition in a few games. The Destroyers do not force many turnovers and interceptions in pass coverage are hard to come by. Columbus will need to guard against the deep pass by dropping back further in coverage and hopefully it will force New Orleans to take the easy short completions. If Columbus can take teh crowd out of the game, then they should keep it close enough for a chance at victory.

Nobody expected New Orleans to have so much difficulty on offense and as a result of their terrible performance against Georgia, they suffered their first home loss. The VooDoo were 5-0 at home before that game, and it was believed their unique home field advantage would give them a boost in the playoffs, if they were able to secure a good seed. Now New Orleans is in the last playoff spot, and they will likely play road games if they reach the postseason. Their offensive struggles were due to the pressure from Georgia's defensive line since they forced Wimrpine to throw on the run on many passes. Wimprine is a pocket passer and does not have a lot of speed, so he and the rest of the offense are vulnerable to sacks and incompletions when facing pressure. New Orleans will need to win this matchup to improve their chances at a playoff berth because New York and Tampa Bay are only a game behind.

New Orleans on offense: The VooDoo have two remaining home games, both against teams with only three wins on the season. New Orleans will have to win both because their other games are against New York and Orlando, which are very difficult road enrivonments. At home, the VooDoo are way more successful with the deep routes and receivers seem to run a little faster are appear to be open more often. New Orleans does take more chances and opens up their playbook more when the crowd is supporting them and showcasing their energy. The VooDoo should be able to get on track and get off to a good start as Wimrpine will have a better performance. The VooDoo were very upset and stated the improtance of bouncing back with a strong outing in post-game interviews and comments. New Orleans should be able to put in close to 60 points in this matchup and the offense will definitely be in rhythm.

New Orleans on defense: The VooDoo played well last week, but the shocking lack of production on offense is what cost them a win. New Orleans has an average pass rush and sacks are not common. They excel in coverage and tackling. The VooDoo rarely let short plays turn into touchdowns or long gains. The linebackers are solid tacklers and can be trusted to bring down ballcarriers. They also stay in position and keep the ballcarrier in fromt of them so they don't give up a big play. The secondary has been the strength of the defense and they are at the top of the league in interceptions. The entire defense is doing their part and New Orleans is above average in points allowed and yards per play. Against a struggling Columbus offense, they will force a lot of incompletions and make it tough for Columbus to score.

Prediction: New Orleans 59, Columbus 45

Dallas vs Cleveland

The Desperados were able to pull away from Orlando in the second half as they comfortably defeated the Predators, 67-41. Dallas and Orlando matched scores on the way to a 28-28 tie at halftime, but Dallas scored 25 consecutive points in the third to put the game out of reach. Clint Dolezel and the Desperado receievers appear to have regained their excellent form and the offense is now becoming nearly unstoppable as it had always been in the past few seasons. Will Pettis and Marcus Nash are once again coming up with great performances and have been scoring consistenly in recent games. Pettis also brings energy to defense and special teams as an ironman and someone who is capable of playing nearly every position. Dallas travels to Cleveland for an important divisional matchup and although the Desperados have the league's best record, Cleveland did defeat Philadelphia when the Soul were unbeaten going into that game.

Dallas on offense: Clint Dolezel knows how to pick apart a defense and that is what the Desperados offense has been doing. Dallas has settled for the shorter passes given to them in coverage and they have not made many bad or forced pass attempts into heavy coverage. Pettis, Bush, and Nash are the three main receivers for Dallas and they are all reliable and able to adjust to off target passes. Dolezel has been getting excellent protection from his offensive line all season and it should continue in this game. Everyone on this unit knows what they have to do and the offensive success will depend upon how well plays are executed. Dallas will probably avoid turning the ball over and with their patient approach, scoring won't be a problem.

Dallas on defense: One of the greatest strengths on this unit is the defensive line. Dallas has been able to create pressure on quarterbacks and force them to throw on the run or from an uncomfortable position. Dallas is one of the better teams in producing sacks and they also limit teams to a pretty low completion rate. Tackling has been solid and the Desperados have avoided allowing big plays. Offenses are forced to grind out yards and some teams have been able to score with regularity, but it is never easy. Dallas may surrender yards to a young and talented Gladiators offense, but they will create struggles for them inside the red zone. The Desperados are a great red zone defensive team and that is why they allow so few points. Look for Cleveland to move the ball but struggle to score from Desperados territory.

Cleveland lost a vital road game that would have allowed them to improve their playoff positioning, but instaed they are in a three way tie at 7-5 for a potential playoff berth. This game is more of a must-win for them that it is for Dallas, who are practically guaranteed to be in the postseason. At home the Gladiators have proven their potential to be a good team and a contender for the ArenaBowl, but on the road they definitely have their challenges. Cleveland knows the importance of every game that remains, and they showed they can defeat premier teams by picking up a win over Philadelphia a few weeks ago. The explosive offense will need to be at their best and the defense will have to create turnovers. Winning will be a huge task but it is possible for this resilient and enthusiastic squad.

Cleveland on offense: In the most recent loss against Tampa Bay, the Gladiators moved the ball and gained first downs but stalled when near the goal line. Cleveland could not beat the tighter coverage and receivers could not get open in the limited space near the end zone. Cleveland will always be able to gain yards and move the ball because they have a good quarterback and a fast receiving unit. Scoring and completing passes late in games or converting on goal line situations is what separates a good offense from an average offense. Dallas is probably the best at red zone defense so Cleveland will face a stiffer challenge than usual when it comes to scoring. Philyaw will need to be accurate and receivers will have to be energetic and looking for the ball at all times if the Gladiators want to stay competitive in this matchup. The home field advantage and intangibles are with Cleveland, the real battle will be the Gladiator receivers against the Desperados defensive backs. Cleveland should keep the game close, but winning will require a nearly perfect game.

Cleveland on defense: The defensive line is not generating a consistent pass rush and opposing quarterbacks are standing in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get open. The talent in the linemen is not as good as other teams, so Cleveland should look for new players in the offseason. The Gladiators have improved in run defense and tackling since the season started, and they can stop opposing fullbacks. In goal line situations, Cleveland has been shutting down teams on running plays. Linebackers have gotten better at tackling receivers on short passes such as screens, slants, and corssing patterns. The weakness is still in the pass coverage as Cleveland has been allowing big plays. Defensive backs are still getting beat on longer routes. Dallas will look to exploit this weakness and Cleveland may not be able to adjust to that. To contain Dallas, the Gladiators will need to tackle well, limit yards after the catch, and find a way to avoid giving up deep completions. The offense is capable of producing scores but the defense will have to either force a few turnovers or stop Dallas in the passing game.

Prediction: Dallas 62, Cleveland 52

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

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