AFL Week 3 Game Previews

Chicago vs Grand Rapids

Chicago has had the toughest home schedule out of any team so far. The Rush have split games against defending ArenaBowl champions San Jose Sabercats and the Philadelphia Soul, who currently reside in the top spot in many polls and rankings. AFL legends Sherdrick Bonner and Damian Harrell have both performed well and kept their team in the game on the offensive end, but turnovers and lazy defense were costly in a loss to the Soul. Back-to-back interceptions allowed the Soul to take a two-touchdown lead in the third quarter and erase any home-field advantage. Harrell and Bonner expressed the need to play consistently and limit mistakes. The Rush have made 4 or more stops in both games, but allowing quick scoring drives and open completions will keep them from having the success they want, an ArenaBowl title.

Chicago on offense: There's no question Damian Harrell and Sherdrick Bonner complement each other nicely, and are turning into a clutch combination. DeJuan Alfonzo is also doing his part, by coming up with third down catches to keep some drives alive and Donovan Morgan had 3 touchdowns against the Soul and 5 for the season. Harrell and Morgan are both capable of posing a deep threat, and will give defenses trouble by forcing them to cover two skilled receivers on long routes. Their quick-score ability lets Travis LaTendresse become a nice third option and check-down receiver, he will have an opportunity to catch short passes and try to make plays. With three decent receivers, the Rush are an efficient and productive offense and facing a Grand Rapids team that is lost and unsure of itself, they will put up some big numbers.

Chicago on defense: The top defensive team in 2007 took a small hit after being pushed around at home against Philadelphia. The Soul were much more physical and missed tackles by Chicago let the Soul repeatedly score in the second half on their way to a huge road win. Being more alert when it comes to covering routes and making tackles are things the defense will look to improve on. This week, Chicago faces the easiest team on the schedule so far when they travel to Grand Rapids, and the defensive unit will be fired up to set the tone early in the game. Although the Rampage scored 8 touchdowns when playing the Sabercats last week, San Jose is still struggling to deal with the loss of their defensive coordinator and are operating new schemes and play packages. Chicago is a solid team that understands the intricate thnigs, such as bieng in position on coverages and taking away primary passing options for opposing offenses. They won't have a letdown after a disappointing performance the previous week.

Grand Rapids probably plays in the smallest media market and gets the least amount of attention from fans and supporters. It's been awhile since they made the playoffs and continuous losing seasons won't help the effort. They lost a pretty close game to San Jose by 8 points and kept up against a superior team. The Rampage got off to a terrific start, gaining a 13-0 lead on two early scores and a Sabercats turnover. However, a possible game-tying touchdown attempt failed on a fumble in the endzone, and Grand Rapids lost their season-opening home game. Adrian McPherson turned in a decent performance and Kenny Higgins had 147 reception yards and accounted for four touchdowns. The Rampage defense, the weakest link on the team, allowed a lot of long passes and let the Sabercats trade scores late in the fourth quarter to preserve an 8-point victory.

Grand Rapids on offense: Adrian McPherson can develop into a good quarterback if he conrinues to complete passes and lead his team down the field. This is only his third season in the AFL, and fellow receivers Kenny Higgins, Anthony Hines, and Chris Johnson are relatively inexperienced, all with 4 years or less of experience. Despite this, the Rampage scored 58 points against the defending champions and the second-ranked total and scoring defense from last year. Now they will need to conquer a tougher challenge when playing the Rush, the top-ranked defense from 2007. The Rampage took a small step forward by being competitive in their first game, and did give the crowd a better than expected offensive display. If they don't have turnovers and convert on third downs, the Rampage have the firepower to put up the same point total and team statistics as they did against San Jose.

Grand Rapids on defense: The defense was overmatched against a veteran Sabercats team and are in the same scenario this week as they are about to face a determined and angry Chicago Rush. Bonner and Harrell are both players that can't be completely stopped but can only be contained. They will most likely lead the Rush to effective scoring drives to gain momentum in the beginning stages of the game, and will give the team something to build on as the game progresses. The best chance for Grand Rapids to win is to get early turnovers or force the Rush into long second and third down conversions. Doing this will mean the Rampage need to play off crowd support and adrenaline, and if they get a couple of defensive stops, they will perform with confidence.

Prediction: Chicago 62, Grand Rapids 51

Utah vs Orlando

Same story, different team. Utah lost a road game to Cleveland 66-63 and once again their defense was unable to make the necessary stops. The Blaze stayed in the game the entire way, trailing by 3 at halftime, which became the final margin of victory. Joe Germaine threw for 8 touchdowns and 374 yards and JJ McKelvey was the leading receiver with 11 receptions and 131 yards. The Gladiators were able to make key stops, holding Utah to just 7 points in the third quarter. Frustrated coach Danny White said, "When you aren't getting stops on defense, turnovers become crtical. We lost the turnover battle, and with that, we lost the game." The Blaze look to put together another strong offensive output when they head down to Orlando to face a surprisingly bad Predators defense.

Utah on offense: Joe Germaine would be in consideration as a top quarterback if his team was more consistent. The Blaze likely need another 60+ point performance because they can't stop anyone. JJ McKelvey and Huey Whittaker are establishing themselves as go-to receivers and need to provide big numbers for their team. Tom Pace is the most experienced offensive player and is a vocal leader for the Blaze. Although the Blaze have a deep receiving core, they often make mistakes at the most inopportune time. Fumbles in the red zone or consecutive interceptions end up costing the Blaze victories. Having one more touchdown in each game would make the Blaze undefeated instead of winless. At least Utah catches the :Predators at a time when they are giving up huge amounts of points, ramking last in scoring defense.

Utah on defense: Fans are wondering when will the defense finally improve and start to make plays. If only there was one simple problem to correct. Utah allows a very high amount of passing yards at 304 per game and is on the field the longest, for 51 defensive plays per game. They lost both games by one possession, so making one more defensive stop would have given them victories. During both halves, Utah is continuously allowing points, so the problem isn't a matter of players getting tired or worn out, it's a matter of not understanding and being able to contain the opposing offense. The majority of the defensive starters have 5+ years of experience, this leads me to believe that the unit is struggling to learn the various alignments and pass coverages that is expected from them. Utah has faced what is likely the two youngest and inexperienced teams in the newly relocated Gladiators and the Rattlers who are starting a rookie quarterback after losing 14-year veteran Sherdrick Bonner. The Blaze are up against a Predators offense that tries to control the pace of the game and hopes to be efficient enough to allow the defense to take over.

Orlando has to be considered one of the early disappointments of 2008. Their backs are against the wall as they look to avoid going 0-3, which would be pretty close to putting them out of the playoff picture. The defense is dead last in points allowed with 65.5 per game and they are letting opponents complete 71% of their passes. The Predators are on the field for just 36 plays each game, but it's because the give up 8 yards a play, leading to quick scoring drives. In both games, they frequently let the opponent have great field position, at their own 20-yard line or better due to kick returns or turnovers. The offense is around the league average in every category but when they are playing from behind, it's difficult to make comebacks. When the defense allows easy scores and no time to rest, it's even harder to be constantly productive.

Orlando on offense: Shane Stafford is the ball control type of quarterback. He runs the AFL version of the West Coast offense, filled with short passes and plays designed to pick up positive yardage and first downs consistently. Due to the very slow style of play, Orlando is among the leaders in offensive plays per game, pass completions, completion percentage and passing yards. This clearly shows they have been scoring on lengthy drives, but since they are often behind by multiple scores, they are unable to catch up quickly enough. Orlando has their first home game against Utah and they will want to set the pace. By establishing long drives in time of possession, they will attempt to keep Utah off the field and hope they can be efficient enough to pull out a much-needed victory.

Orlando on defense: This game will show where the Predators are in terms of their defense. What was once their identity and strength has now deteriorated into a lost and uncertain group of players. The Predators did play better against New Orleans, being in a position to win the game on a two-point conversion which failed. They face a stiff challenge when hosting the high-scoring, offensive-minded Utah Blaze. The secondary has been a weak spot, lots of long plays have given opponents easy touchdowns. The Predators have the worst yards per play average and the most touchdowns allowed with 19. They will put extra emphasis on defending the deep pass, which is frequently used by Utah, and will partially rely on the offensive unit to score and take time off the clock. This is a do or die game for Orlando and I think the defense can rise to the occasion.

Prediction: Orlando 55, Utah 48

Cleveland vs Columbus

Cleveland goes on the road for the first of six games away from the Quicken Loans Arena, and we will quickly find out if the Gladiators are a force in the tough Eastern division. Their 2-0 record has been the result of two home games against the Blaze and Dragons, who are a combined 1-3. Cleveland has scored an average of 63.5 points per game and Raymond Philyaw has thrown for 11 touchdowns with just 1 interception. His quarterback rating is second to Tony Graziani and the top-ranked Soul. The revamped Gladiators roster is lead by Robert Redd, Andy McCollough and Otis Amey, each with 130 or more total yards on the season. The surprising Gladiators offense is a product of effective passing and with little turnovers, it becomes very likely that Cleveland will score a bunch of touchdowns.

Cleveland on offense: What a difference one season can make. Last year, the Gladiators were last in total points and touchdowns, now they are the second-ranked offense. Cleveland has three receivers that are dependable and able to get away from defenders. Their offensive system is based upon timing routes that allow players to catch passes in stride and the occasional 20+ yard deep route to Redd or Amey. A high completion rate and yards after catches give the Gladiators lots of opporunities for first downs and eventual scores. Cleveland seems to be in the perfect matchup since Columbus has been unable to make stops on third downs and in the red zone. They have good defensive statistics only because their first two opponents were missing key players and opted to play a ball control offense, killing the clock and drastically limiting total possessions in the game. The Gladiators should be able to expose the Destroyers defense for what it really is, even if they are playing on the road.

Cleveland on defense: The Gladiators have done enough to get wins, but have not played in an impressive fashion. They gave up 63 points to an excellent Utah offense, and in the first game against the Dragons, starting New York quarterback Aaron Garcia was injured in the second quarter. Cleveland has good team chemistry but needs more experience in reading play coverages and reacting to the actions of receivers. This is something that has to be learned with a young team and they will improve in future games. This week the Gladiators face a Destroyers offense that has been turnover-prone and lacks any dangerous scoring threat. Columbus is scoring 41.5 points per game and is at the bottom of the AFL in total yards and yards per play. The Gladiators will try to gain additional confidence and game experience as they already have the potential to shut down this weak Columbus team.

Columbus is 0-2 on the season and last in scoring. Although they have AFL legend Matt Nagy at quarterback, the offense is out of sync and can't produce big plays, they have the least amount of plays resulting in 10+ yards. The Destroyers played two road games against playoff teams from last year, but they are scoring 10 points less each game than in 2007. At home, Columbus will be desparate for a victory, but they face a tougher than expected challenge from the Cleveland Gladiators. The Destroyers will have to score often in the first half to stay in the game, due to their offensive struggles if they fall behind by two scores or more, the game is practically over.

Columbus on offense: The Destroyers only returned half of the players from the 2007 team that reached the ArenaBowl and the inexperience is starting to show. Incomplete passes, dropped balls and turnovers deep into a possession are frequently occuring whenever the offense takes the field. In their last game, Columbus failed to score on their first two possessions and had just 5 touchdowns for the entire game. Matt Nagy said its important for the team to get off to a good start, because if they trail throughout the game, a lack of talent and intutition will hinder their comeback eforts. Columbus needs an offensive spark and getting an opening drive touchdown and constant first half scores will rejuvinate the team and allow the crowd to get involved.

Columbus on defense: The Destroyers have played fairly well on this side of the ball, but in the AFL every team can score, so the defense can't be expected to make stops all the time. Columbus has forced opponents to throw to second, third, and even fourth options, so the offenses are not always getting what they want. The Destroyers were competitive in both games heading into the final quarter, but an inconsistent offense is holding them back. This week, Columbus faces the most complete offense its seen so far and they will need to put togther an even better display than what they have done in the two losses. Columbus has to force a lot of short passes and make Philyaw check down on his plays, and resort to his last options on most routes.

Prediction: Cleveland 54, Columbus 49

Los Angeles vs Georgia

The Avengers are putting on an amazing performance and are an early favorite to win the ArenaBowl. Los Angeles has easily won both games, by 17 against the VooDoo, and by 32 on the road against the Rattlers. The second half is when they are pulling away from other teams, outscoring opponents by a 61-21 margin. Sonny Cumbie has already tossed 14 touchdown passes and the Avengers secondary is only surrendering a 48% pass completion rate, best in the AFL. Los Angeles travels to Georgia to face a winless but dangerous Force team. The Force have dropped off considerably in terms of their offensive production, but they still lead the league in scoring a year ago and return many of those starters.

Los Angeles on offense: The Avengers are becoming a model of consistency and show no signs of slowing down. Sonny Cumbie has been very efficient in both games and understands once his team gains the lead, then it's time to try and put the game out of reach. He has done that in the second half, as the Avengers had double-digit leads entering the fourth quarter. Kevin Ingram and Timon Marshall are leaders on the field and through their performance, both are carrying the load and putting up great numbers as primary receivers. Los Angeles will hope to score early and often in this game because Georgia needs this victory in the worst way and I don't think they will have another dismal offensive production.

Los Angeles on defense: When you are watching them play, you can't tell if this group of players, or those on offense are the bigger strength of the team. The defense has been absolutely dominating, as the Avengers are allowing an amazing 37.5 points per game. That is what some teams score in a single half. Right before the start of the season, the secondary pledged to be more responsive to receivers and they have done just that. Deflected passes, batted balls and a flurry of incompletions and interceptions are the best way to describe what takes place when opposing offenses try to run their plays. The Force are a team which should never be underestimated and the Avengers go into hostile territory as they look to continue on their fantastic start.

Georgia was an early preseason favorite to emerge as National Conference champions, now they are battling just to be respectable and stay in the playoff hunt. It's only been two games, but the Force have a horrible offensive scoring differential, from putting up 62.5 points a game last year to a meager 44.5 points a game this year. They lack the explosive big-play capability after the loss of Chris Jackson, and nobody has stepped forward to fill the role. Georgia averaged over 64 points at home last year and still has the leadership, poise and confidence to post huge numbers at home in 2008. To do that, it will have to start against the best defense in the AFL. The Force are one of those playoff teams from 2007 that are struggling to regain their winning ways and they can't wait much longer to do so.

Georgia on offense: Chris Greisen had a season to remember last year, as the Force set records for points, total yards and games with 60 or more points. The fans became accustomed to seeing Georgia score on every possession, but now getting first downs is a major challenge. Losing a star receiver is only one reason for the difficulties, the Force are communicating poorly on the field, creating inaccuracy and bad timing on routes and eventually causing stalled drives. Many times the Force were inside the 10-yard line or 5-yard line and turned the ball over on downs or takeaways. Georgia is near the bottom in third and fourth down conversion rate and is not getting easy points off turnovers or non-offensive scores. This means the Force are usually in bad starting field position and are gaining only a few yards each play, which is what Los Angeles wants to force teams into.

Georgia on defense: Usually the defense has come second because of the dominating offensive play, but this year is a drastic exception. With the inconsistent scoring and demoralizing turnovers at important stages during games, the Force are not a team scoring at will. The defense played well in the first game against Dallas, but were run over last week at Tampa. Allowing 69 points has the team searching for answers. The Force are frequently in tough situations, in the two games they lost, they trailed at halftime and by 14 points entering the final quarter. Georgia plays the most well-rounded team in a must-win home game and the defense will have all it can handle to avoid an 0-3 opening start.

Prediction: Los Angeles 62, Georgia 52

AFL Week #3 Mini Previews

Arizona vs San Jose

Arizona: After the terrible game against the Avengers, it doesn't appear that they are a playoff caliber team. Lang Campbell suffered a leg injury but is probable to start this game. The Rattlers need to complete a higher percentage of passes reulting in first downs because they can't keep drives alive. The offensive line was a glaring weakness as Campbell was sacked 5 times and knocked to the ground on a few more plays. Arizona might play better in this matchup because their coach Kevin Guy was the former defensive coordinator for San Jose. Despite this, the Rattlers need to make serious adjustments on offense to keep up with a high-flying Sabercats team.

San Jose: The Sabercats rebounded off an opening week loss with a closer than expected win at Grand Rapids. The defense needs to improve the most, as they allowed a mediocre Rampage team to put up 58 points. Losing its defensive coordinator can have lingering effects since the team will have to learn new formations, play calling, and gameplans. Luckily, the Sabercats face a struggling Rattlers offense that is inexperienced at every major position. San Jose should continue to have its offense in stride and another nice performance should occur.

Prediction: San Jose 67, Arizona 53

New York vs Philadelphia

New York: The Dragons responded from a road loss at Cleveland by defeating Kansas City in their first home game. In a defensive game, the Dragons were able to limit Kansas City to 47 points and stopped them on their final possession after a game-tying field goal was missed. Rohan Davey has filled in nicely for the Dragons and had 6 touchdowns in their victory. He will start against the Soul and is a serious threat to take the starting position away from Aaron Garcia, who has been sidelined with an injury since week one. The Dragons lead the AFL in rushing attempts with 11 per game, and often utilize running plays close to the goal line or to catch defenses off guard. The defense will be overmatched against the Soul, as they were against the Gladiators. New York needs to shorten the game by running the ball often and taking time off the clock on long scoring drives.

Philadelphia: The Soul are playing so well that the only team that can stop them is themselves. On offense, Graziani is yet to throw an interception and leads the AFL with 14 touchdowns. The Soul average 68.5 points per game. They won both games so far by an average of 16 points. Philadelphia sent a message in their first home game by scoring 77 points against Orlando, a team best known for their imposing defense. They will try to jump out to a quick lead and control the game against an inferior Dragons squad. Expect the Soul to take a double-digit lead into halftime and maintain it for the game.

Prediction: Philadelphia 59, New York 45

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans

Tampa Bay: The Storm are 2-0 and face their second consecutive division matchup when they play at New Orleans. Tampa easily took care of Georgia, scoring 69 points on the way to a 21-point win. The 11-score performance allowed them to take an early lead and pile onto it throughout the third and fourth quarters. What is normally a methodical offense turned into a surprising offensive barrage as Georgia had no answers or adjustments for the Storm. The defense has held both opponents to under 50 points by forcing them into third-and-long situations which sometimes end in a turnover on downs for the other team. Tampa doesn't want to lose any momentum by falling behind in a tough environment, so they should be able to have a lead by halftime.

New Orleans: The VooDoo picked up a nice win over a division opponent when they beat the Predators by a single point. The defense rose to the occasion by stopping a two-point conversion with no time left to preserve the win. Danny Wimprine was quietly efficient and put up good statistics, including 6 touchdowns, against a shaky Predator defense. He will need to have his team under control because the road only gets tougher in another home game, this time against the undefeated Storm. Tampa has not backed down on defense and Wimrpine has to have a mistake-free game to pick up the victory. The VooDoo defense has to contain the Storm and use their superb home-field advantage by playing off emotion. If the defense forces early turnovers and the offense scores consistently, then New Orleans has a chance for the upset.

Prediction: New Orleans 58, Tampa 56

Colorado vs Dallas

Colorado: The Crush are well-rested after a bye week. In their only game, they won by 3 points at home against the Columbus Destroyers, currently winless on the season. Colorado had an up and down offensive game, they were stopped on 4 drives but scored 50 points, barely enough for the win. John Dutton was okay in his accuracy and put his team in position to get touchdowns, but Colorado sputtered on offense on a few occasions. A couple of times they had a turnover on a first-and-goal situation or settled for field goals. Colorado returns most of its starters from a top-five defense in 2007, and they travel to Dallas to take on the Desperados, who won last week without star quarterback Clint Dolezel. The Crush win by playing and practicing the fundamentals, such as solid tackles after a reception, man-to-man coverage at all times, no turnovers or dropped passes, positive yards on every offensive play, etc.

Dallas: Chris Sanders was able to get a home win over the team that beat them in the 2007 playoffs. He filled in admirably for Dolezel and guided his offense down the field for lengthy scoring drives. He will be in a similar situation as the Desperados are an execution-based offense that likes to work on the little things. Good timing on routes and small but steady completions are the main components in that system. Dallas will play a little slower than usual in terms of pace and plays per game until Dolezel returns. They want to win games and have Sanders become comfortable with all of the plays and offensive schemes.

Prediction: Dallas 49, Colorado 45

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

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