AFL Week 5 Game Previews

Arizona vs Chicago

Arizona put together their first complete game in a decisive 62-33 win over New York. This gives them a 2-2 record and they are now tied with Los Angeles for the division lead. This has to be the most anticipated matchup in the season for the Rattlers, as they get to face Sherdrick Bonner and the surging Chicago Rush. Bonner, who had been the franchise player and image for the Rattlers, is now playing for a top AFL team, while the Rattlers are struggling to find any type of consistency. Arizona got a great performance out of its defense last week, creating nine stops, eight of them turnovers on downs. This was a nice surprise since they had allowed over 60 points in all of their previous games. Jeff Smoker showed signs of being a competent quarterback and team leader, and passed for five touchdowns in the victory over New York.

Arizona on offense: The offense has been simplified and that is understandable since they are still playing with a backup quarterback. The Rattlers know there will be difficulties since they have a depleted offense, on the roster they have 2 quarterbacks, 4 receivers, 2 fullbacks, a kicker, and 4 offensive linemen with 3 years of less of experience. They are practically starting a rookie team every time they take the field. Considering all of this, the Rattlers performance can't be criticized too harshly and they made a lot of improvements in their last game. Arizona's offense has been turned into a slow-paced attack with many short passes. Crossing routes, comeback routes, and screen passes are frequently used in the play packages. This allows Jeff Smoker to get rid of the ball quickly, since the Rattlers offensive line is inconsistent and prone to giving up sacks and hits on the quarterback. Receivers also find it easier to run routes and catch more passes. Arizona's success on offense will be determined by whether Smoker can get enough time in the pocket to deliver his passes and whether the Rattlers can avoid long-yardage situations, something Chicago is very good at.

Arizona on defense: The defense was spectacular in the win over the Dragons and they put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterback Aaron Garcia. Arizona forced incomplete passes throughout the game and that allowed them to have full control over their play calling and formations. Since the Dragons had to throw the deep ball on nearly every down, the Rattlers knew what type of plays were coming and they prepared accordingly. Arizona faces a Chicago team with a strong offensive line, so their improving pass rush will probably have little effect on Sherdrick Bonner. The Rush receivers are mostly veterans who have won constantly in the regular season and the playoffs so they understand the importance of the game. Arizona will struggle to cut off receivers from their routes so they will allow completions. Their best hope on defense is to create turonvers early in the game to slow down the Chicago momentum and try to take Bonner out of his rhythm.

Chicago is getting better each week, and their latest performance was a 70-35 win over Colorado. In that game, Damian Harrell set a record for all-time touchdown receptions, with his 304th. Bonner to Harrell is becoming a clutch combination for the Rush and all of the players are executing very well, their experience is guiding the team to dominant wins. Chicago seems to be taking a game-by-game approach each week, and they are winning by a large margin, while realizing that the ultimate goal is advancing in the playoffs and becoming ArenaBowl champions. The Rush are solid when it comes to their offensive line and that allows Bonner and the receivers to show off their skills. On defense, they are arguably the most energetic and intense unit, flying all over the field to force interceptions and incompletions.

Chicago on offense: The Rush are the most experienced offensive unit in The AFL. They play with so much consistency because they know the plays, the formations, their role on the team, and when to step up their game and help their teammates. Basically, the Rush are a well-oiled machine that never stops producing. Last week's game was another example, they were in a fairly competitive game at halftime up 40-28, but dominated the second half, 30-7, to seal the outcome. Every Rush receiver has big play potential and are always available for Bonner. Chicago should take advantage of an inexperienced Arizona defense to take an early lead and keep adding to it on the offensive end.

Chicago on defense: Although the Rush have been scoring with frequency, their defense should not be ignored. This isn't a second-rate unit or weakness on the team, this group of players are as skilled and energetic as those on offense. Chicago might have just 5 interceptions so far, but they lead the league last year. They are only giving up 45 points per game and that is caused by playing with the lead throughout the game and forcing opponents into third-and-long situations. Chicago puts themselves into a position where they can make one good play and create a stop, whether it's by turnovers or downs. They should keep up the strong play and domination when they face the Rattlers, who have not completely found their identity.

Prediction: Chicago 62, Arizona 45

Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week, and the timing was excellent. In their last game, the usually physical defense gave up 76 points to the New Orleans VooDoo in a 21-point loss. The Storm were manhandled and pushed around, which is very uncharacteristic of them. Tampa Bay realizes that defense is still important and the trademark of the team. They signed two defensive backs, Daryon Brutley and Bryant Tisdale to their roster in an attempt to have a more responsive and talented secondary. The Storm also added offensive lineman Geir Gudmundsen, who played sparingly last year. Even though Tampa Bay is around the league average in most defensive categories, allowing 77 points to any team is a cause for concern. When you consider that their first two opponents, Kansas City and Georgia are a combined 1-6 and averaging only 48.5 points per game, then the weak performance against New Orleans may be a better indicator of how the Storm will play against quality teams, and it shows some areas need improvement, such as pass rush and limiting extra yards after catches.

Tampa Bay on offense: I think the Storm have a decent offense and Brett Dietz is a quarterback that can play under pressure and rise to the occasion. He led his team to one playoff win last year and has put up good statistics on the season. Dietz has always been someone that was poised and never turned the ball over very often. Tampa bay is still averaging 58 points per game and doing this despite averaging the least yards per game, with only 234. This is a good thing because it shows they are starting off with excellent field position on each possesion. They also have the fourth least plays per game, meaning they often score quickly. The explosiveness on offense has helped out the Storm and with a solid quarterback and receivers, I see Tampa Bay continuing to score with ease, even against the undefeated Philadelphia Soul.

Tampa Bay on defense: The horrible outing came as a big surprise to me and the Storm take too much pride to not make adjustments. The new roster moves may excite the players and show them that if they don't play well, anything can happen to them. I think Tampa's coach is sending a message to his players, saying that you have to be consistent and that each position on the team has to be earned and not taken for granted. The Storm are known for being very physical, and hard hits on quarterbacks and receivers are expected. Tampa doesn't allow a lot of yards on running plays or after completions, so solid tackling is something they are good at. Tampa has an experienced defensive line and a decent pass rush, which was non-existent in the last game, but I feel the linemen will play much better and will be hyped up for Philadelphia. If the Storm can play with the same intensity that has been the image of the team for so many years, then they will be effective in this game.

Philadelphia is going through its opponents with a dominance that has not been seen in the AFL for quite awhile. Even the 2007 Dallas team which tied for the best regular season in AFL history did not start off the season by winning games with such a huge margin. The Soul are defeating teams by an average of 22 points, scoring 67 points on offense and allowing 45 on defense. The won their last game at Los Angeles with backup quarterback Matt D'Orazio, taking control in the late stages to finish off a 71-34 victory. The Soul have scored 60 or more points in each game. Matt D'Orazio passed for 8 touchdowns and 406 yards in the victory over Los Angeles and Chris Jackson had 6 touchdown receptions. The Soul proved why many believe they are the most complete team in arena football.

Philadelphia on offense: Even without Tony Graziani, the Soul have maintained their great performance on offense. Matt D'Orazio has shown that he is a capable replacement and exceeded expectations last week. Anytime a quarterback tosses 8 touchdown passes without an interception, he is feeling comfortable in the offense and is getting his receivers involved in the game. Philadelphia has several receivers that can take over a game, Chris Jackson and Larry Brackins are two of them. Mike Brown is a nice complement to the offense, he is able to get open and catch the short and mid-range passes. The Soul have legitimate players at each position, they can move the ball in every possible way, on a deep pass, a short pass, or by running the ball with fullback Wes Ours, who is amazing at breaking tackles and lunging forward for additional yards. The Soul doesn't have a serious weakness and they just need to play mistake-free if they want to keep on scoring.

Philadelphia on defense: They are only giving up 45 points per game and this is due to a few reasons. The Soul doesn't give up many big plays, the majority of touchdowns allowed are from within the 10 yard line, so the opposing offense has to move the ball down the field and score from close to the goal line. Philadelphia allows the least yards per play, with just 5.6. They rank in the top five in completion percentage and total yards allowed. Philadephia doesn't create a lot of interceptions, with only 5. They force the opposition into a lot of third down plays and they are on the field for the most defensive plays, but this also means they are generating some stops on downs if they are allowing so few points. At home, the defense will want to make some stops to pick up a win in a pretty big early season matchup.

Prediction: Philadelphia 63, Tampa Bay, 55

San Jose vs Kansas City

San Jose is coming off a home loss for the first time since 2006. The Sabercats had a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter but fumbled the ball inside the Dallas 10-yard line, and the Desperados were able to close out the game. San Jose was methodical on offense and many of their scoring drives took five minutes or more off the clock. They did struggle on the defensive end, allowing points on every Dallas possession, resulting in 8 Desperados touchdowns and 2 field goals. The Sabercats gave up a 72% completion percentage to Dallas and only forced 4 third down attempts during the game. They look to return to top form against the Kansas City Brigade, who allowed 92 points in their last game and are 0-3 on the season.

San Jose on offense: The Sabercats run a precision offense, they expect positive yards and consistent gains out of every play. Although they are capable of completing a long touchdown pass, they usually run shorter routes to get defenders out of position. San Jose is always among the league leaders in completion percentage and points per game, so they score on almost every possession. Receiver Cleannord Saintil caught 18 passes for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns in the loss against Dallas, which is a team record. Mark Brieb threw 6 touchdowns and no interceptions, but two scoreless drives in the game was the difference between winning and losing. The Bridage are winless and surrendering a league worst 64 points per game so the Sabercats should be able to score whenever they want to.

San Jose on defense: The Sabercats are an experienced and well-coached defensive unit, and not being able to have one stop during a game is completely unacceptable. They might be struggling to perform well because they have a new defensive coordinator, but nearly all of last year's players are still on the team. San Jose is allowing 57 points per game, which is 9 points worse than in 2007. They are simply letting receivers get open and catch the ball without being touched or even covered. Often, a receiver will catch the ball and the nearest defender will be at least a step behind. San Jose needs to be more responsive and energetic on pass routes, because they are doing okay in their tackling and rush defense. The Sabercats face the worst team in the AFL so getting a decisive victory shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Kansas City could not have gotten off to a worse start on the season. Last year, they made their first playoff appearance and looked to make more strides this season. All of the optimism and excitement has now turned to concern and despair. Because of this, some changes to the roster will become permanent. Matt Kohn made his debut against Grand Rapids and will continue to be the starting quarterback. On defense, linebacker Antonio Ficklin and defensive lineman Joe Wooldridge will also become starters. Head Coach Kevin Porter still has a defensive mentality, despite the struggles, saying " If they can't score, then we can't lose." Kansas City is last in points allowed and 12th in points scored, and they are being outscored by 15 points per game.

Kansas City on offense: Since they are starting a new quarterback, expect to see more incompletions and more desperation from the players as the game progresses. The Brigade were already inconsistent with their previous quarterback John Fitzgerald, who had 6 years of experience. Jerel Myers and Mike Horacek are having decent performances for the Brigade and combine for over two-thirds of all receiving yards on the season. Although Matt Kohn executed some plays well and threw for 4 touchdowns and 281 yards, he is still adjusting to all of the offensive plays and defensive formations he faces in game situations. During the second half of the loss to Grand Rapids, the Brigade were throwing the ball deep on every play, trying to find the one open reeciver for a huge gain, instead of running a more organized offense. This shows they were desperately trying to stay in the game, but if they are going to play like that, then how confident are the coaches in the schemes and play packages that were run in the beginning of the game. It seems that the Brigade are attempting to overhaul their offense and start from scratch. They haven't given up on the season but pretty soon, they will have to decide what direction this underperforming organization needs to move in.

Kansas City on defense: I'm not sure how much the new roster moves will help the team. It could be a source for inspiration or it could create trouble by changing the team chemistry and forcing the defensive coordinators to call new plays to better accomodate the unit. The Brigade are getting beat by receivers on routes, they are missing tackles, and they are allowing a lot of quick scores. The players are feeling insecure and worried about their capabilities. In this matchup, San Jose has more talent, so the Brigade will have to perform with inspiration and hope that the home crowd can assist them in playing the role of a big underdog trying to pull off an upset.

Prediction: San Jose 70, Kansas City 55

Orlando vs Columbus

Orlando finally showed signs of life on defense, shutting out Georgia in the last 12 minutes of a 50-45 win. The defense made 3 consecutive stops and the Georgia receiver was tackled at the Orlando 1-yard line as time expired. After a high-scoring first half, the Predators took control of the game and slowed down the pace to their comfort level. Orlando has a decent offense and Shane Stafford passed for 6 touchdowns and 278 yards. T.T Toliver had 8 receptions for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns and Ron Johnson had 9 receptions for 76 yards and 1 touchdown. The Predators realized the importance of that divisional game and coach Jon Gruden said," 2-2 and you're right back in the hunt, 1-3 and its going to be a struggle from here on out to get back in the thick of things." Orlando has won 2 straight games and looks to win their first road game this week at Columbus.

Orlando on offense: Shane Stafford has been able to keep his team competitive and now they are starting to get the results they want. The Predators are a disciplined team and don't turn the ball over very often. Stafford only has 3 interceptions and already has thrown 24 touchdown passes. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 11.5 yards per completion. The Predators really have made an effort to complete longer passes, they rank fourth in the AFL in yards per play. They have the highest completion percentage at 70% and are fifth in total yards with 306 per game. Offense is the strength of this team and the Predators have to score constantly to pick up victories. Orlando wants to get a road win and scoring might be a little harder than expected against a winless team, since Columbus will try to turn the game into a defensive battle as they are the league's worst offense.

Orlando on defense: The Predators finally had a good defensive game and they look to build on that this week. Before the previous game against Georgia, Jon Gruden said, "We have a long way to go, especially defensively. Our defense has to improve and we're making strides in that area now." They did make strides by shutting out the Force late in the fourth quarter and players were actually enthusiastic and looking forward to the next opportunity to make a play. Orlando tackled much better in the second half against the Force and also got a couple of turnovers. The Predators need to rush the quarterback and tackle well, since Columbus attempts a lot of short passes and once Matt Nagy is out of the pocket, he has trouble finding open receivers. If they do those two things, Columbus will continue to have scoring difficulties.

Columbus is 1-3 and realistically out of playoff contention in the tough Eastern Division. The offense is out of sync and lots of simple mistakes are being made. Receivers are frequently out of position on routes, sometimes underrunning the route. Matt Nagy is a solid quarterback, but his supporting cast of players are inexperienced and unable to adjust to offensive plays. Columbus picked up a win over Utah last week on a last second field goal and the defense contained Utah in the second half, giving up just two touchdowns. Columbus did play 3 of its first 4 games on the road, and 2 games against division opponents. Every game has been against a team with a winning record this year or against a team that made the playoffs last year, so their schedule has been one of the toughest. Playing at home might be the spark this team needs to pick up another win.

Columbus on offense: The Destroyers are having trouble finding consistency but there is a lot of potential. Matt Nagy has passed for 18 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions so he has done his share of work. He has thrown a lot of incompletions, with just a 62% completion rate, which is in the bottom half of the AFL. The problem is the Destroyers lack the explosiveness and quick-score ability which is the trademark for success in arena football. Derek Lee has 467 receiving yards on the season, but that is half of the team total, so Columbus doesn't have good second or third options on routes. When defenses shut down Lee, then Nagy may have trouble finding other receivers that are being productive. The Destroyers have a rushing attack with fullback Harold Wells, who is averaging 24 yards per game, a lot by AFL standards. That probably will be irrelevant against the Predators, who are solid against the run, so Columbus will need to have big passing plays in order to score.

Columbus on defense: The defense is a little above average but that hasn't been enough due to the offensive challenges. The Destroyers only have 3 interceptions, but still allow just 51 points per game, tied for fifth in the league. Their 6.4 yards per play and 280 yards per game ranks sixth. The Destroyers don't allow too many big plays but they can be worn out after being on the field for so long. They allow a lot of third down conversions and that gives offenses another chance to score. In televised games against Dallas and Cleveland, they frequently forced them into third downs early in the possession, but gave up a conversion and eventually a touchdown. Orlando can be methodical so Columbus will need to stop them in long-yardage situations and force them to attempt field goals or turn the ball over.

Prediction: Orlando 55, Columbus 49

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

> Check out Chad's Arena Football Rules & AFL Basics article and see how your team is doing in the 2008 AFL standings as AFL teams continue to battle for a chance to play in Arena Bowl XXII!