AFL Week 8 Game Previews

New York vs Tampa Bay

New York has won two straight games and has improved their record to 3-4. Aaron Garcia is undefeated in the three games he has started and put on another good performance by throwing 8 touchdowns in a 62-44 win over the Columbus Destroyers. Jason Willis and Chris Anthony were the top receivers for the Dragons, combining for 5 touchdown receptions and 230 yards. New York allowed only 17 offensive points through three quarters, and with a 42-24 lead entering the final quarter, the game was well out of reach. After the victory, Garcia said,"We give our receuvers a lot of freedom. Each week we play together, we're getting more in sync. The line is playing better and that gives me more time with some of our crossing routes. We're just trying to get better each week and I think we're taking the right steps." New York looks to carry their momentum into this week as they are in a road game with the underperforming Tampa Bay Storm.

New York on offense: It's obvious that the Dragons are a completely revitalized team with Garcia as quarterback. They rely purely on their top three receivers, as Chris Anthony, Jason Willis and Kevis Swayne each have 500 yards or more on the season and have combined for a total of 34 touchdowns. New York is also a pure passing team, they have the second least rushing attempts per game, with just 4.7. They use a lot of short crossing and timing routes to gain first downs or set themselves up in short yardage situations. When playing with the lead, the Dragons rarely turn the ball over, but when they are trailing, they may become desperate and try to force things to happen. In the four losses, turnovers contributed to their lack of scoring. Garcia is a good team leader and is able to take control of the offense, so far he has helped to transform the Dragons into a strong offensive unit. New York shouldn't have much difficulty in scoring against a below average Storm defense.

New York on defense: Quietly, the Dragons have become a defensive force, in their last two games they have only surrendered 34 and 44 points. New York is allowing 39 points per game, good for fourth in the league. Considering that every team will pass the ball on nearly 90% of their offensive plays, New York's 60% pass completion rate is the second best and shows their defensive backs and linebackers are putting tight coverage on receivers and are not giving up easy completions. The Dragons hardly ever allow a big play, they allow the fewest yards per game. New York has much more energy and since they have been playing with pretty big leads, there is less pressure and teammates are doing their part to contribute to the overall effort. They have shut down inconsistent offenses this season and face another one in Tampa Bay.

The Storm were expected to contend for a division championship and possibly play in the ArenaBowl. After winning their first two games, the Storm have lost four straight and have not been solid on either side of the ball. Their latest loss was a 63-62 home defeat to Arizona, in which Tampa Bay gave up a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter and allowed a game-winning two-point conversion with three seconds left. Brett Dietz threw for 6 touchdowns and 367 yards and the Storm scored on nearly every possession. Although the Storm made the only defensive stop in the game, the Rattlers scored 14 consecuive points to start the fourth quarter, including recovering a kickoff in the end zone for a score. The 63 points is the most allowed by Tampa Bay this season. Now that the Storm are in last place in the Southern Division, each game is more of a necessity to win if they want to stay in the playoff picture.

Tampa Bay on offense: Brett Dietz is having another great year, but the Storm are never in a comfortable position, since they are always trailing or protecting a close lead in games. Dietz accounted for 8 touchdowns in the game against Arizona and the Storm did not have a fumble or interception on offense. Tampa Bay has a decent group of receivers and they are lead by Lawrence Samuels and Hank Edwards. Edwards leads the team with 13 touchdown receptions. Brent Holmes and David Saunders are available for completions when other receivers are covered and they both make nice options for converting first downs, since they are usually open for short gains. Brett Dietz is completing 66% of his passes so most plays are resulting in positive yardage for Tampa Bay. Torrance Marshall is a solid go-to receiver in goal line situations, he has 8 touchdowns and only 63 receiving yards. Tampa Bay has a lot of talent on offense and I think they will put up a strong performance this week.

Tampa Bay on defense: This is the weakest unit on the team and the main cause for the disappointment and struggles on the season. Tampa Bay is allowing 58 points per game and making any type of defensive stop is a huge challenge. Although the Storm allow the third fewest yards per game, it is not translating into more stops and fewer points. This is because the Storm are giving good field position to their opponents, either from turnovers or from kickoff returns. Opponents frequently start possessions at their own 20-yard line or better and that makes it tough for the defense to prevent a touchdown. Still the defense should take a lot of the blame, they are not creating interceptions and are allowing a lot of third down conversions. The defense is letting teams keep drives alive and that will usually result in a touchdown. The Storm face a team which has gotten into rhythm on offense and I see a lot of points being scored in this game.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 66, New York 61

San Jose vs Utah

San Jose suffered a surprising 58-57 home loss to Philadelphia, after they lead 20-0 at the end of the first quarter and still allowed the Soul to make a furious comeback attempt. After creating two defensive stops in the opening quarter, the Soul gave up 8 touchdowns and 58 points in the remainder of the game. The defeat dropped San Jose to 3-4 on the year and they are no longer leading the Western Division. Mark Grieb threw for 6 touchdowns and 274 yards while Rodney Wright had 12 receptions for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. San Jose lost two straight home games for the first time since 2006. Although the Sabercats play the winless Utah Blaze, they have had a little difficulty in securing road wins over losing teams. San Jose won by just 8 points over Kansas City and Grand Rapids, who are a combined 2-10 this year. They will be expected to pick up a victory but the defense still needs to play well to erase any doubts about the final outcome.

San Jose on offense: The Sabercats are still strong in this area like they were last year. Mark Grieb is among the top quarterbacks in the league and is again putting up strong performances each week. Grieb is completing two-thirds of his passes and has 33 touchdowns. The Sabercats have four receivers with 300 yards or more on the season and nine players have scored an offensive touchdown. Cleannord Saintil is the leading receiver with 717 yards and 11 touchdowns. Along with Rodney Wright and James Roe, the Sabercats are a threat to gain first downs and score from anywhere on the field. Players are usually in the right position on most routes and they do not make many mental mistakes, like dropped balls or turnovers on offense. The Sabercats will probably score on almost every possession against a horrible Blaze defense.

San Jose on defense: This is where the intensity and committment on each play needs to pick up. San Jose is only an average defense after being among the best in the previous year. The Sabercats are allowing 56 points per game, up 8 points from 2007. San Jose has a good pass completion rate, at 61%. At first glance they look like a pretty good defense, but they struggle when the pressure is on to make a stop. On third downs and short yardage situations, the Sabercats are allowing first downs and touchdowns. They can't get offenses off the field because the energy level and execution is only average. San Jose is supposed to be a physical defense but they haven't been tackling very well and are allowing more yards after the catch than ever before. Against an explosive Blaze team, they look to get back on track.

Utah is 0-7 on the season with the league's worst record, and in their 79-62 loss at Los Angeles, they had another weak defensive effort. Utah allowed 44 points in the first half and 72 points through three quarters. This took away the efforts of Joe Germaine, who had a great performance with 9 touchdowns and 362 yards. J.J McKelvey was the top receiver, he caught 11 passes for 171 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Blaze had one bad quarter when they were outscored 28-7 in the third, letting Los Angeles built an insurmountable lead. Utah coach Danny White said," The end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third are difficult times for us. We will keep changing things up and keep playing guys that are mentally tough and have a lot of energy."Utah would love to pick up their first win by defeating the defending ArenaBowl champs at home, but it would take their best efforts on both sides of the ball for that to happen.

Utah on offense: The Blaze are one of the best and most consistent offenses in arena football, but have been overshadowed by the lackluster defense. Joe Germaine continues to prove he is an elite quarterback, he leads the league in touchdown passes with 47 and has also thrown for 2233 yards. The Blaze have three receivers with over 600 yards in Huey Whittaker, Aaron Boone, and J.J McKelvey. Utah attempts a lot of deep passes, always testing the opposing secondary and their pass coverage. Nearly every completion goes for a first down, and the big gains and quick scores are what they are looking for. The Blaze are built for speed, they have one of the fastest receiving cores in the AFL. At home, the Blaze are very explosive and they should be able to put up 60 or more points again. Whether they win will depend on the defensive effort.

Utah on defense: The Blaze are allowing 66 points per game, last in the AFL, which is where they have been all year. They have a -9 scoring margin, so all of the offensive output is for nothing if the Blaze can't stop teams from scoring. Utah has struggled to be committed to this part of the game, as players have admitted they are not making stops and coming up with big plays when it's needed. The Blaze have been rotating players in and out on defense, so adjustments between teammates and getting used to the defensive packages and formations will take more time. Utah isn't forcing many incompletions or long-yardage situations, teams are moving the ball all the time. Utah needs to find the right group of players, commit to that unit and just start building from scratch. It will be awhile before the defense makes noticeable improvements, but correcting the problems has to start now.

Prediction: San Jose 70, Utah 62

Orlando vs Georgia

Orlando has now won five games in a row and they will try to pick up another division win in what has always been a closely contested matchup. The Predators won the previous game this season at home in a very controversial fashion. Orlando defeated Georgia 50-45, after a Georgia receiver was ruled out of bounds at the 1-yard line as time expired, although many believed he had crossed the goal line for the winning touchdown. The Predators have developed into a high scoring and explosive team under the guidance of Shane Stafford. They scored 75 points and 11 touchdowns in their most recent win over Grand Rapids, and also forced 4 defensive stops. Stafford, along with some of the other starters, were able to rest in the second half against Grand Rapids with the outcome already decided. Having the team well rested and at full strength will be a nice advantage since this particular matchup is usually extremely physical and hard fought.s

Orlando on offense: The Predators are becoming more consistent on offense and that is due to two reasons. Shane Stafford is finding his open receivers and taking whatever the defense gives him. He is content to throw five and ten yard passes instead of always going for the big play like in the beginning of the season. The offensive line is blocking and giving Stafford extra time in the pocket so routes are able to develop. T.T Toliver is having an awesome year with a total of 943 yards and 22 touchdowns. According to coach Jay Gruden," He has the speed to run by a defender but also has a great feel for different looks by the defense to get open. The more you feed him the better he is." Georgia will attempt to limit the deep routes and force the Predators to gradually move the ball down the field, but if Stafford can keep on completing passes, they won't have too much difficukty in scoring.

Orlando on defense: During the winning streak, the Predators have been able to create a strong pass rush and pressure the quarterback. The amount of quarterback hurries and scrambles, incompletions and interceptions have all increased in the last five games. This means the defensive line is getting penetration and forcing the opposing quarterback to get rid of the ball before he wants to. When an offense gets out of rhythm, receivers have to adjust their timing on routes and it makes it harder to get completions. Orlando has been forcing more third down attempts and that will frustrate any offense and allow for defensive stops. The Predators face a team which is inconsistent but full of talent, so they need to continue creating pressure and forcing the quarterback to throw to their last options. One thing can be expected and that is the physicality displayed by the Predators defense.

Georgia is coming of a bye week and they could really use the additional rest heading into this matchup. They have won two straight games to even their record at 3-3. The Force have made minor changes to their roster by placing receiver Charles Pauley on injured reserve and waiving defensive backs Ricky Bell and Syvelle Newton along with receiver Kyle Smith. The three players released from the team rarely played, making a total of just three game apperances. Georgia has been improving on both sides of the ball, averaging 61 points on offense and allowing 49 points on defense. Players are reacting to what is happening on the field and practicing the fundamentals such as solid tackling and staying in tight coverage with opposing receivers. The Force are definitely out for revenge after a tough road loss to the Predators in the last matchup, and at home they can be nearly unbeatable after getting off to a good start.

Georgia on offense: After a dream season in 2007, we are finally seeing the Chris Greisen we have come to expect. He is having an above average year, throwing for a total of 36 touchdowns and 1822 yards. In the past two games, he has lead the offense to 70 point outbursts. Georgia mixes up short passes along with the occasional out or fly patterns to the end zone. At home, the Force are much more likely to attempt long passes, since they want to jump out to an early lead and play from ahead. The receiving core is lead by Carl Morris and Troy Bergeron, who have combined for 964 yards and 18 touchdowns. Ten players have caught a pass so far and five have 100 yards or more. Georgia will try to test the Orlando defense with a few deep passes and if that doensn't work, they have the ability to grind out yardage.

Georgia on defense: The Force have a bend but don't break style of defense. They do allow yards and completions, they actually rank in the bottom of the league in both areas. The Force try to make teams slowly move the ball downfield because eventually the offense will make mistakes such as throwing a bad pass or dropping a easy catch. They have been forcing more turnovers in recent games and that is caused by defenders jumping routes when they recognize where the quarterback will throw the ball or by putting a good hit on the ballcarrier. The Force don't allow a lot of yards per play and they have been creating second and third down attempts. Georgia hasn't made big mistakes on defense and they play well as a team, if they keep it up and are more physical than Orlando, it will result in a win.

Prediction: Georgia 55, Orlando 49

Cleveland vs Los Angeles

After a 3-0 start, the Gladiators have dropped their last three games and their early winning streak is now being regarded as a fluke. In the three losses, the defense has allowed 63 points per game. Understanding that being a one-dimensional squad won't bring in consistent wins, Cleveland has made a couple of changes to their roster. They signed two defensive backs, Alphonso Hodge and Kahlil Carter. Hodge was in the NFL for three years but only on the practice squad and had no game appearances, while Carter has played for five different AFL teams. Offensively, Raymond Philyaw has displayed the ability to guide his teammates to both consistent scores and victories and the receiving unit is young but full of potential. Picking up wins will ultimately depend on how well the defense performs and hopefully the new defensive backs will provide a spark for the weak Gladiators secondary.

Cleveland on offense: The Gladiators lack experience at most positions but display a lot of potential and energy during games. Raymond Philyaw has guided this team to a few early season wins, but they have been turning the ball over much more. A few untimely turnovers cost the Gladiators wins against Dallas and Colorado, both veteran squads who know how to battle back from a defecit, and both equipped with opportunistic defenses. Cleveland likes to use deep passes to quickly set themselves up for scores and while they take advantage of defensive mistakes and poor coverages, they are prone to incompletions and eventual long yardage conversion attempts. When the Gladiators continuously face third and long situations, it will result in empty possessions. Cleveland still has an explosive and determined offense and they should score against a porous Avengers secondary.

Cleveland on defense: Whenever a team is young and inexperienced, it can be a challenge to create a good defense. It's easier to improve on offense since players have a little more control in running their plays, receivers know exactly where to go on routes, the quarterback has an easier time finding open teammates, etc. On defense, reading formations and recognizing routes and play packages are much more complex and require a solid knowledge of the game. The Gladiators secondary is struggling to cover receivers because they don't recognize which pass plays are run and whether the receiver will turn, run up the field, act as a decoy, etc. The defensive line hasn't created that many sacks and quarterbacks are getting a decent amount of time in the pocket. The tackling has been average and not a weak spot as compared to other areas. Los Angeles is an experienced team and have begun to regain their big play potential, so Cleveland will have to pressure the quarterback since turnovers are their only chance at getting stops.

Los Angeles picked up a much needed victory over the Utah Blaze to snap their four game losing streak. Despite their struggles during the first seven weeks, the 3-4 Avengers are in the middle of the playoff picture and tied for first place in the Western Division going into this matchup. Coach Ed Hosgkiss said," After a week of practice, we changes some things. We didn't turn the ball over and that was clearly what hurt us in the four losses." Tim Hicks played well in replacement of Sonny Cumbie, completing 29 passes for 294 yards and 8 touchdowns. "What's exciting about Hicks is that he makes plays that aren't drawn up." Los Angeles will host their second straight home game, again against a high scoring, offensive minded opponent.

Los Angeles on offense: Turnovers and incompletions have been the biggest problems for the Avengers and in the last game, they improved in both areas. Tim Hicks has been leading his team to touchdowns and the scoring output has not dropped off in recent games. The Avengers have two quarterbacks capable of solid performances and a very experienced group of receivers. Timon Marshall and Kevin Ingram have been consistent and dynamic all season and both have over 500 yards and and 10 or more touchdowns on the year. LaShaun Ward is also stepping up his performance and becoming a nice third option on routes. Los Angeles wants to limit turnovers and get consistent gains on each play. They should do that against an unprepared and mediocre Cleveland secondary.

Los Angeles on defense: This is the weakest unit on the team and allowing an average of 70 points per game in the last four weeks won't result in many wins. Surprisingly, the Avengers don't allow a lot of completions compared to other teams, but when they do it usually is for a long gain. The Avengers have been allowing a lot of completions of 15 yards or more. Defensive backs have been a step slow on routes and receivers are getting past them or around them with ease. Combine that with a non-existent pass rush and you can see why so many points are being given up. Los Angeles faces an opponent which will test them with deep routes and a fast paced offense. They need to stay with their coverage on receivers, prevent long touchdown completions and try to create some type of pass rush to make the quarterback feel uncomfortable. Los Angeles made adjustments on offense, now they need to do it on defense.

Prediction: Los Angeles 66, Cleveland 62

By Chad Fukoka
ProFootball-fans.com Staff Writer

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