Matt Stafford, the second coming of David Carr

On April 25th, the Detroit Lions will have the privilege of making the first overall selection in the 2009 NFL draft. But when you have a team like the Lions, who have so many pressing needs, who should be at the top of their draft board? The current consensus among the major mock drafts is for the first selection in the 2009 NFL draft to be Georgia quarterback, Matt Stafford.

But is the right choice for the Lions or Stafford?

The team has been starving for a quarterback that could be the face of the franchise. Their most recent attempt came in the form of Joey Harrington, who never amount to much during his short career with the team. During their winless season in 2008, the Lions used 5 different quarterbacks, who combined a 55% completion rate for 2,960 yards with 19 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. The offensive line allowed the Lions quarterbacks to be sacked a total of 52 times during the regular season.

With that type of inconsistency you can see why the Lions would be tempted to use the first pick on Stafford. When you take a look at the 3 year career of Matt Stafford at Georgia, you will see he completed 57.1% of his passes for 7,731 yards with 51 touchdowns and 33 interceptions. The positive sides of Stafford has been top tier arm strength along with his ability to complete a throw even when hit. On the negative side, there is the concern that Stafford has sloppy footwork and has a tendency to throw into tight spots. Though Stafford is ranked at the top quarterback in the 2009 NFL draft, he has not distinguished himself as a clear cut # 1 selection.

Before the Lions come to a final decision they need to take a long hard look back at the 2002 NFL draft. The Houston Texans decided to pass on defensive studs, like Julius Peppers or Dwight Freeney, who later went on to have Pro Bowl seasons. Instead the Texans decided to use the first overall pick to select Fresno State quarterback David Carr. The winner of the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award, Carr started three years at Fresno State and was able to complete 62.8% of his passes while amassing 7,849 yards with 70 touchdowns and only 23 interceptions. The pros loved Carr’s quick release even though some were concerned about how well he worked through his progression of receivers.

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The Texans expected big things from Carr and he delivered in the team’s first ever NFL game, when they upset the Dallas Cowboys. After the win, things began to go down hill for Carr. During his 5 years with the Texans, he completed 60.1% of his passes for 13,391 yards with 59 touchdowns and 65 interceptions. But the biggest telling statistics that led to the demise of Carr was 249 times he was sacked by the opposition during his stay in Texas. This total includes the 76 sacks he was subjected to during his rookie season.

Now if you look at the 52 sacks the Detroit Lions allowed to veteran NFL quarterbacks, is there any reason to expect Stafford to be subjected to anything less than 60 sacks? Yes, Stafford seems eager to play for the Detroit Lions, even after a disastrous season in 2008. Who wouldn’t be if the team was going to hand over truck loads of money? This positive attitude will change when he is being chased from the pocket or while he is trying to throw off his back.

There is no doubt the Lions need to find a franchise quarterback to help lead them out of the darkness, but this is not time. If the Lions do the smart thing and pass on Stafford, maybe go with an offensive line or defensive player. Not only will this save the team some money when it comes to signing the first pick, it may give Stafford the chance of having a solid NFL career rather than becoming a first round bust.

By JM Van Horn
ProFootball-fans.com Detroit Lions Correspondent