Is NFL Armageddon at hand?

Armageddon is the final battle between good and evil described in the Bible. In the case of the NFL vs. the NFL Players' Association, it is hard to tell which is which. But the battle could be coming and it might be the end of the game as we know it. Or maybe not.

Next week, the NFL owners meet in Atlanta and one of the topics will be opting out of the current labor agreement. The owners feel that the current agreement which gives the players around 60% of the total revenue of the league has cost the teams too much. Don't break out the crying towels for the owners because they are still making money, just not as much as they would like. Failure to extend the agreement would set a series of actions in motion that could well end the game as we know it.

What could happen:

The NFL has until mid-November to tell the NFLPA it is going to opt out. If it does and the Union does nothing the game will remain exactly the same until 2010. 2010 will be an uncapped year. On the up side for players and free agents in that year, a team could spend any amount of money it wanted to put a championship team together. That means more for some players. There would be no rookie cap so that each rookie drafted could negotiate whatever deal a team would agree to. More money for players.

On the down side, there would be no minimum amount that an NFL team would have to spend. Because contracts are not guaranteed, a team like the Bengals or the Bills could cut all their players and hire 53 semi-pro players that might work for 100K each. That would reduce their labor expense from around 105 million which is about what they will spend this year to 5.3 million and thus they would put a nice chunk of cash in their pocket. Obviously, they would lose games, but they are losing games now at the 105 million level.

Another hit the players would take is in free agency. Now, a player gets to be a free agent after 4 years. If the contract expires without an extension, they would have to play 6 years. There would be a large percentage of the league caught in the change of years of service necessary to become a free agent.

There would be no draft after the 2010 season. Every rookie would be a free agent able to negotiate with any team or all of them at the same time. Kiss competitive balance goodbye along with Mel Kiper. Rather than that happening, the NFL would likely lock the players out thus beginning the first labor stoppage since 1987. We all remember the fun of replacement games, don't we? The lockout could come before or after the 2010 season depending on what the league decides to do.

The NFL owners won't want to have an uncapped year because the shift in power that the 2010 free agents would involve would affect league balance for years to come even if there was an agreement later on.

What the union would do:

Gene Upshaw, the director of the NFLPA, has been under pressure from a handful of members to resign because he has not negotiated the guaranteed contracts that exist in the MLB and NBA. That part is true, but neither of those leagues come close to giving their players 60 percent of all revenue. The NFL agreement is the most lucrative deal ever negotiated by a union.

The membership could do what they did in 87 and decertify the union. That would allow them to go back to the courts and sue the NFL for relief. The players won the last suit leading to free agency but what will happen this time is anyone's guess.

What will most likely happen:

I believe that the NFL will renounce the agreement before mid-November. They will then begin to negotiate with the NFLPA to craft a new agreement. IF either of them have a half a brain in their heads, they will find a way to split up a 6 billion dollar a year pie. That is right sports fans, the expected revenue in 2008 is over 6 billion dollars!

If a case of “what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable” strikes either party, you can expect to see the NFLPA decertify and the NFL owners lock the players out probably before the 2010 season. The union will decertify and the courts will decide who did what to whom.

We may be seeing a rerun of the movie “The Replacements” in a stadium near you.

By Bill Smith
Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for BrutusReport.com and has published several novels on http://ebooks-library.com/index.cfm and edits http://fryingpanpolitics.blog.com

Past articles from Smith:

• Why Mike Martz wears out his welcome so quickly
• Smith one of many uncomfortable with Cameron's complex offense
• Editorial: Walsh tapes just chips off the iceberg that is SpyGate
• The best values in each round of the 2008 NFL Draft
• The best bargains of the 2008 NFL Draft

> More pro football articles from Pro Football Fans.